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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

ARI NYSE Real Estate Investment Trusts MD CIK: 0001467760
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 20, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
📅 Next earnings: Apr 28, 2026 (in 12 days) • After-hours ET • EPS est. $0.27 (vs $0.22 prior year) • All earnings →
Combined AI Rating
HOLD
67% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
HOLD
62% Conf
HOLD
72% Conf

📊 ARI Key Takeaways

Revenue: $271.6M
Net Margin: 46.7%
Free Cash Flow: $142.5M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 0.42x
EPS: $0.81
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) receives a HOLD rating with 67% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $271.6M, net profit margin of 46.7%, and return on equity (ROE) of 6.8%, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Real Estate sector. Below is our complete ARI stock analysis for 2026.

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) a Good Investment?

Claude

ARI demonstrates strong profitability with 46.7% net margins and impressive 62.9% revenue growth, generating substantial free cash flow of $142.5M. However, the critical concern is severely inadequate interest coverage of 0.5x, indicating the company cannot cover debt service from operating income, which is unsustainable for a REIT and suggests potential covenant violations or refinancing stress.

ChatGPT

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shows a meaningful rebound in top-line growth, strong operating profitability, and solid operating cash generation, which supports a more stable near-term fundamental outlook. However, weak interest coverage, modest returns on assets and equity, and limited cash relative to a large balance sheet keep the overall profile balanced rather than clearly strong.

Why Buy Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Stock? ARI Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Exceptional net margin of 46.7% indicating highly profitable lending operations
  • + Strong revenue growth of 62.9% YoY with corresponding operating income growth
  • + Robust free cash flow generation of $142.5M with 52.5% FCF margin to revenue
  • + Conservative leverage with 0.42x debt-to-equity ratio relative to peers
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue grew 62.9% year over year while net income increased 10.7%, showing improving earnings momentum
  • + Operating margin of 46.8% and net margin of 46.7% indicate strong profitability conversion
  • + Operating cash flow and free cash flow of $142.52M suggest earnings are supported by real cash generation

ARI Stock Risks: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Dangerously low interest coverage ratio of 0.5x - unable to cover debt service from operating income
  • ! Low absolute ROE of 6.8% and minimal ROA of 1.3% despite high margins suggests capital inefficiency
  • ! Minimal cash position of $139.8M relative to $773.4M long-term debt creates refinancing risk
  • ! Heavy reliance on financial engineering in REIT model; interest coverage deterioration signals fundamental stress
ChatGPT
  • ! Interest coverage of 0.5x indicates weak ability to cover interest expense from operating earnings
  • ! ROE of 6.8% and ROA of 1.3% remain modest for the size of the asset base
  • ! Cash of $139.82M is relatively limited compared with $8.04B of liabilities, reducing liquidity flexibility under stress

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Interest coverage ratio - must improve above 2.0x to indicate sustainable debt servicing
  • * Debt-to-assets ratio - currently 0.81x indicates rising leverage concentration
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability - verify 62.9% revenue growth is repeatable
  • * Quarterly dividend sustainability relative to free cash flow generation
ChatGPT
  • * Interest coverage trend
  • * Net income and operating cash flow consistency

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$271.6M
Net Income
$126.7M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.81
Free Cash Flow
$142.5M
Total Assets
$9.9B
Cash Position
$139.8M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 52.5% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

ARI Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 46.8%
Net Margin 46.7%
ROE 6.8%
ROA 1.3%
FCF Margin 52.5%

ARI vs Real Estate Sector: How Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Compares

How Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. compares to Real Estate sector averages

Net Margin
ARI 46.7%
vs
Sector Avg 20.0%
ARI Sector
ROE
ARI 6.8%
vs
Sector Avg 8.0%
ARI Sector
Current Ratio
ARI 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
ARI Sector
Debt/Equity
ARI 0.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
ARI Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Stock Overvalued? ARI Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. appears fundamentally strong relative to the Real Estate sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
6.8%
Sector avg: 8%
Net Profit Margin
46.7%
Sector avg: 20%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.42x
Sector avg: 1.5x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Balance Sheet: ARI Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
0.42x
Debt/Assets
81.3%
Interest Coverage
0.50x
Long-term Debt
$773.4M

ARI Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

ARI 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $334.5M, Net Income $230.2M, EPS $1.40. Year 2022: Revenue $303.6M, Net Income $18.4M, EPS $0.01. Year 2023: Revenue $344.6M, Net Income $223.5M, EPS $1.46. Year 2024: Revenue $344.6M, Net Income $265.2M, EPS $1.68. Year 2025: Revenue $344.6M, Net Income $58.1M, EPS $0.29.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s revenue has shown modest growth of 3% over the 5-year period. The most recent EPS of $0.29 reflects profitable operations.

ARI Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
52.5%
Free cash flow / Revenue

ARI Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $61.6M $20.7M $0.34
Q2 2025 $70.9M $20.7M $0.12
Q1 2025 $65.8M $26.0M $0.16
Q3 2024 $71.6M $11.6M $0.00
Q2 2024 $81.1M -$34.5M $0.23
Q1 2024 $80.5M $48.9M $0.32
Q3 2023 $76.3M $11.6M $0.00
Q2 2023 $76.0M $15.2M $-0.30

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$142.5M
Cash generated from operations
Dividends Paid
$141.3M
Returned to shareholders

ARI SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (CIK: 0001467760)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about ARI

What is the AI rating for ARI?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 67% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are ARI's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional net margin of 46.7% indicating highly profitable lending operations. Strong revenue growth of 62.9% YoY with corresponding operating income growth. ChatGPT: Revenue grew 62.9% year over year while net income increased 10.7%, showing improving earnings momentum. Operating margin of 46.8% and net margin of 46.7% indicate strong profitability conversion.

What are the risks of investing in ARI?

Claude: Dangerously low interest coverage ratio of 0.5x - unable to cover debt service from operating income. Low absolute ROE of 6.8% and minimal ROA of 1.3% despite high margins suggests capital inefficiency. ChatGPT: Interest coverage of 0.5x indicates weak ability to cover interest expense from operating earnings. ROE of 6.8% and ROA of 1.3% remain modest for the size of the asset base.

What is ARI's revenue and growth?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. reported revenue of $271.6M.

Does ARI pay dividends?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. pays dividends, with $141.3M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find ARI SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (CIK: 0001467760) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is ARI's EPS?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $0.81.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is ARI a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. has a HOLD rating with 67% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is ARI stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for ARI: ROE of 6.8% (sector avg: 8%), net margin of 46.7% (sector avg: 20%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy ARI stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is ARI's free cash flow?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $142.5M, with capital expenditures of N/A. FCF margin is 52.5%.

How does ARI compare to other Real Estate stocks?

Vs Real Estate sector averages: Net margin 46.7% (avg: 20%), ROE 6.8% (avg: 8%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.5).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 20, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI