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Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

VST NYSE Electric Services DE CIK: 0001692819
Recently Updated • Analysis: May 9, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Rating
HOLD
72% Confidence
N/A
HOLD
72% Conf
Pending
Analysis scheduled

📊 VST Key Takeaways

Revenue: $5.6B
Net Margin: 18.2%
Free Cash Flow: $316.0M
Current Ratio: 0.90x
Debt/Equity: 3.42x
EPS: $2.87
AI Rating: HOLD with 72% confidence
Vistra Corp. (VST) receives a HOLD rating with 72% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $5.6B, net profit margin of 18.2%, and return on equity (ROE) of 18.4%, Vistra Corp. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Utilities sector. Below is our complete VST stock analysis for 2026.

Is Vistra Corp. (VST) a Good Investment?

Claude

Vistra demonstrates strong operational performance with excellent profit margins (26.6% operating margin) and growing net income (+25.5%), but balance sheet risks are significant. High leverage (3.42x D/E) combined with weak liquidity (0.90x current ratio) and tight interest coverage (2.0x) create downside risk, while slow revenue growth (+0.9%) limits upside momentum.

Why Buy Vistra Corp. Stock? VST Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Exceptional operating margin of 26.6% reflects efficient power generation operations
  • + Net income growth of 25.5% YoY demonstrates operational leverage and cost control
  • + Solid ROE of 18.4% indicates effective capital deployment despite leverage
  • + Strong operating cash flow generation of $1.2B supports obligations

VST Stock Risks: Vistra Corp. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Critical weakness: Interest coverage of only 2.0x leaves minimal margin for operational deterioration or rate pressures
  • ! Elevated leverage with 3.42x D/E ratio combined with current ratio of 0.90x signals liquidity stress and refinancing risk
  • ! Stagnant revenue growth of 0.9% YoY indicates limited organic growth trajectory despite profitable operations
  • ! Dilutive capital structure evident from 68.9% decline in diluted EPS despite growing net income
  • ! Free cash flow margin of 5.6% is thin, limiting financial flexibility for debt reduction or shareholder returns

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Interest coverage ratio trend (must remain above 2.5x minimum safety threshold)
  • * Current ratio and liquidity position (target return to >1.0x)
  • * Debt reduction progress and refinancing schedule for $19.2B long-term debt
  • * Revenue growth acceleration and margin sustainability
  • * Free cash flow generation and capital allocation priorities

Vistra Corp. (VST) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$5.6B
Net Income
$1.0B
EPS (Diluted)
$2.87
Free Cash Flow
$316.0M
Total Assets
$41.3B
Cash Position
$634.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

VST Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 26.6%
Net Margin 18.2%
ROE 18.4%
ROA 2.5%
FCF Margin 5.6%

VST vs Utilities Sector: How Vistra Corp. Compares

How Vistra Corp. compares to Utilities sector averages

Net Margin
VST 18.2%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
VST Sector
ROE
VST 18.4%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
VST Sector
Current Ratio
VST 0.9x
vs
Sector Avg 0.8x
VST Sector
Debt/Equity
VST 3.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.4x
VST Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Vistra Corp. Stock Overvalued? VST Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Vistra Corp. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Utilities sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
18.4%
Sector avg: 10%
Net Profit Margin
18.2%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
3.42x
Sector avg: 1.4x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Vistra Corp. Balance Sheet: VST Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.90x
Quick Ratio
0.80x
Debt/Equity
3.42x
Debt/Assets
86.4%
Interest Coverage
2.02x
Long-term Debt
$19.2B

VST Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

VST 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $17.7B, Net Income $928.0M, EPS $1.86. Year 2022: Revenue $17.7B, Net Income $636.0M, EPS $1.30. Year 2023: Revenue $17.7B, Net Income -$1.3B, EPS $-2.69. Year 2024: Revenue $15.6B, Net Income -$1.2B, EPS $-3.26. Year 2025: Revenue $17.6B, Net Income $1.5B, EPS $3.58.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Vistra Corp.'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 1% decline. The most recent EPS of $3.58 reflects profitable operations.

VST Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
5.6%
Free cash flow / Revenue

VST Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Vistra Corp. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $4.3B -$268.0M $-0.93
Q3 2025 $4.3B $652.0M $1.64
Q2 2025 $3.6B $59.0M $-0.11
Q1 2025 $3.2B -$35.0M $-0.24
Q3 2024 $4.3B $502.0M $1.25
Q2 2024 $3.0B $330.0M $0.66
Q1 2024 $3.1B -$35.0M $-0.24
Q3 2023 $4.8B $502.0M $1.25

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Vistra Corp. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$372.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$883.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$77.0M
Returned to shareholders

VST SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Vistra Corp. (CIK: 0001692819)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
May 8, 2026 10-Q vistra-20260331.htm View →
May 7, 2026 8-K vistra-20260507.htm View →
May 4, 2026 8-K ef20072328_8k.htm View →
Apr 28, 2026 8-K ef20071492_8k.htm View →
Mar 18, 2026 DEF 14A vistra-20260318.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about VST

What is the AI rating for VST?

Vistra Corp. (VST) has an AI rating of HOLD with 72% confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are VST's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional operating margin of 26.6% reflects efficient power generation operations. Net income growth of 25.5% YoY demonstrates operational leverage and cost control.

What are the risks of investing in VST?

Claude: Critical weakness: Interest coverage of only 2.0x leaves minimal margin for operational deterioration or rate pressures. Elevated leverage with 3.42x D/E ratio combined with current ratio of 0.90x signals liquidity stress and refinancing risk.

What is VST's revenue and growth?

Vistra Corp. reported revenue of $5.6B.

Does VST pay dividends?

Vistra Corp. pays dividends, with $77.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find VST SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Vistra Corp. (CIK: 0001692819) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is VST's EPS?

Vistra Corp. has a diluted EPS of $2.87.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is VST a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in May 2026, Vistra Corp. has a HOLD rating with 72% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is VST stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for VST: ROE of 18.4% (sector avg: 10%), net margin of 18.2% (sector avg: 12%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy VST stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Vistra Corp. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is VST's free cash flow?

Vistra Corp.'s operating cash flow is $1.2B, with capital expenditures of $883.0M. FCF margin is 5.6%.

How does VST compare to other Utilities stocks?

Vs Utilities sector averages: Net margin 18.2% (avg: 12%), ROE 18.4% (avg: 10%), current ratio 0.90 (avg: 0.8).

Is Vistra Corp. carrying too much debt?

VST has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.42x, which is above the Utilities sector average of 1.4x. Combined with a current ratio below 1, this warrants careful monitoring of the balance sheet.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 9, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI