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Packaging Corp. Of America (PKG) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

PKG NYSE Paperboard Containers & Boxes CIK: 0000075677
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 19, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
📅 Next earnings: Apr 22, 2026 (in 6 days) • After-hours ET • EPS est. $2.18 (vs $2.31 prior year) • All earnings →
Combined AI Rating
HOLD
70% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
HOLD
62% Conf
HOLD
78% Conf

📊 PKG Key Takeaways

Revenue: $9.0B
Net Margin: 8.6%
Free Cash Flow: $728.6M
Current Ratio: 3.17x
Debt/Equity: 0.87x
EPS: $8.58
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence
Packaging Corp. Of America (PKG) receives a HOLD rating with 70% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $9.0B, net profit margin of 8.6%, and return on equity (ROE) of 16.8%, Packaging Corp. Of America demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Materials sector. Below is our complete PKG stock analysis for 2026.

Is Packaging Corp. Of America (PKG) a Good Investment?

Claude

PKG demonstrates solid operational profitability with healthy margins (21% gross, 12.3% operating) and strong cash generation ($728.6M FCF), supported by excellent liquidity (3.17x current ratio). However, the extraordinary 11,464.5% revenue increase raises data quality concerns, and the combination of high leverage (0.87x debt/equity) with $4.0B long-term debt against modest equity ($4.6B) creates financial risk that warrants cautious positioning.

ChatGPT

Packaging Corp of America shows solid core fundamentals with healthy margins, strong operating cash generation, and a conservative liquidity profile that supports ongoing capital investment and debt service. However, earnings growth appears muted, EPS declined, and the extreme reported revenue growth strongly suggests a comparability or data-quality issue, which reduces confidence in the apparent growth trajectory.

Why Buy Packaging Corp. Of America Stock? PKG Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong free cash flow generation ($728.6M) providing financial flexibility
  • + Healthy gross margins (21%) and operating margins (12.3%) indicating pricing power in containerboard market
  • + Excellent liquidity position (3.17x current ratio, 1.94x quick ratio) reduces financial distress risk
  • + Positive ROE (16.8%) and ROA (7.2%) demonstrate capital deployment efficiency
ChatGPT
  • + Strong profitability with 21.0% gross margin, 12.3% operating margin, and 16.8% ROE
  • + Healthy cash generation with $1.56B operating cash flow and $728.6M free cash flow after heavy capex
  • + Solid balance sheet liquidity with 3.17x current ratio and manageable 0.87x debt-to-equity

PKG Stock Risks: Packaging Corp. Of America Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Highly suspicious revenue growth figure (11,464.5% YoY) suggests significant data quality issues or extraordinary one-time events requiring investigation
  • ! Elevated leverage with $4.0B long-term debt relative to $4.6B equity creates vulnerability to commodity price cycles endemic to packaging industry
  • ! Diluted EPS declined 3.9% YoY despite revenue surge, indicating earnings quality concerns or operational headwinds
  • ! Missing interest coverage ratio and incomplete liability data limit ability to assess debt servicing capacity
ChatGPT
  • ! Reported revenue growth of +11464.5% YoY is likely distorted by data inconsistency, making growth quality hard to assess
  • ! Net income grew only 0.7% while diluted EPS fell 3.9%, indicating limited per-share earnings momentum
  • ! Leverage is meaningful with $3.99B long-term debt, while total liabilities and interest coverage are unavailable

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Underlying organic revenue growth and margin sustainability post-anomaly resolution
  • * Debt service coverage ratio and free cash flow trend given high absolute debt levels
  • * Operating leverage and cost structure response to containerboard commodity price cycles
ChatGPT
  • * Free cash flow conversion and capital expenditure intensity
  • * Packaging segment volume/mix and margin stability

Packaging Corp. Of America (PKG) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$9.0B
Net Income
$774.1M
EPS (Diluted)
$8.58
Free Cash Flow
$728.6M
Total Assets
$10.7B
Cash Position
$529.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 3.17x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

PKG Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 21.0%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Net Margin 8.6%
ROE 16.8%
ROA 7.2%
FCF Margin 8.1%

PKG vs Materials Sector: How Packaging Corp. Of America Compares

How Packaging Corp. Of America compares to Materials sector averages

Net Margin
PKG 8.6%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
PKG Sector
ROE
PKG 16.8%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
PKG Sector
Current Ratio
PKG 3.2x
vs
Sector Avg 1.6x
PKG Sector
Debt/Equity
PKG 0.9x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
PKG Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Packaging Corp. Of America Stock Overvalued? PKG Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Packaging Corp. Of America has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Materials sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
16.8%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
8.6%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.87x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Packaging Corp. Of America Balance Sheet: PKG Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
3.17x
Quick Ratio
1.94x
Debt/Equity
0.87x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
N/A
Long-term Debt
$4.0B

PKG Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

PKG 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $7.7B, Net Income $696.4M, EPS $7.34. Year 2022: Revenue $8.5B, Net Income $461.0M, EPS $4.84. Year 2023: Revenue $8.5B, Net Income $841.1M, EPS $8.83. Year 2024: Revenue $8.5B, Net Income $1.0B, EPS $11.03. Year 2025: Revenue $9.0B, Net Income $765.2M, EPS $8.48.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Packaging Corp. Of America's revenue has grown significantly by 16% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $8.48 reflects profitable operations.

PKG Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
8.1%
Free cash flow / Revenue

PKG Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Packaging Corp. Of America including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $2.2B $226.9M $2.51
Q2 2025 $2.1B $198.9M $2.21
Q1 2025 $2.0B $146.9M $1.63
Q3 2024 $1.9B $183.2M $2.03
Q2 2024 $2.0B $198.9M $2.21
Q1 2024 $2.0B $146.9M $1.63
Q3 2023 $1.9B $183.2M $2.03
Q2 2023 $2.0B $202.7M $2.24

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Packaging Corp. Of America Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$1.6B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$153.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$828.9M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$449.6M
Returned to shareholders

PKG SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Packaging Corp. Of America (CIK: 0000075677)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 31, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Mar 31, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Mar 31, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Mar 31, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Mar 31, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about PKG

What is the AI rating for PKG?

Packaging Corp. Of America (PKG) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 70% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are PKG's key strengths?

Claude: Strong free cash flow generation ($728.6M) providing financial flexibility. Healthy gross margins (21%) and operating margins (12.3%) indicating pricing power in containerboard market. ChatGPT: Strong profitability with 21.0% gross margin, 12.3% operating margin, and 16.8% ROE. Healthy cash generation with $1.56B operating cash flow and $728.6M free cash flow after heavy capex.

What are the risks of investing in PKG?

Claude: Highly suspicious revenue growth figure (11,464.5% YoY) suggests significant data quality issues or extraordinary one-time events requiring investigation. Elevated leverage with $4.0B long-term debt relative to $4.6B equity creates vulnerability to commodity price cycles endemic to packaging industry. ChatGPT: Reported revenue growth of +11464.5% YoY is likely distorted by data inconsistency, making growth quality hard to assess. Net income grew only 0.7% while diluted EPS fell 3.9%, indicating limited per-share earnings momentum.

What is PKG's revenue and growth?

Packaging Corp. Of America reported revenue of $9.0B.

Does PKG pay dividends?

Packaging Corp. Of America pays dividends, with $449.6M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find PKG SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Packaging Corp. Of America (CIK: 0000075677) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is PKG's EPS?

Packaging Corp. Of America has a diluted EPS of $8.58.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is PKG a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Packaging Corp. Of America has a HOLD rating with 70% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is PKG stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for PKG: ROE of 16.8% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of 8.6% (sector avg: 10%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy PKG stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Packaging Corp. Of America a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is PKG's free cash flow?

Packaging Corp. Of America's operating cash flow is $1.6B, with capital expenditures of $828.9M. FCF margin is 8.1%.

How does PKG compare to other Materials stocks?

Vs Materials sector averages: Net margin 8.6% (avg: 10%), ROE 16.8% (avg: 14%), current ratio 3.17 (avg: 1.6).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 19, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI