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Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

MPC NYSE Petroleum Refining DE CIK: 0001510295
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 19, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
HOLD
70% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
HOLD
62% Conf
HOLD
77% Conf

📊 MPC Key Takeaways

Revenue: $132.7B
Net Margin: 3.0%
Free Cash Flow: $4.8B
Current Ratio: 1.26x
Debt/Equity: 1.76x
EPS: $13.22
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) receives a HOLD rating with 70% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $132.7B, net profit margin of 3.0%, and return on equity (ROE) of 23.4%, Marathon Petroleum Corp demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Energy sector. Below is our complete MPC stock analysis for 2026.

Is Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) a Good Investment?

Claude

Marathon Petroleum demonstrates solid operational efficiency with a 6.2% operating margin and strong cash generation (4.8B free cash flow), but faces headwinds from declining revenue (-4.4% YoY) and elevated leverage (1.76x debt-to-equity). The company maintains adequate interest coverage (5.6x) and healthy returns on equity (23.4%), suggesting operational resilience despite cyclical energy sector pressures.

ChatGPT

Marathon Petroleum shows resilient core fundamentals, with solid operating cash flow, positive free cash flow, and stable net income despite a 4.4% revenue decline. Profitability remains acceptable for a refiner, but thin margins, elevated leverage, and only moderate interest coverage limit upside in a cyclical industry. The business looks fundamentally sound, though growth quality appears mixed because EPS outpaced net income materially.

Why Buy Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock? MPC Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong free cash flow generation of 4.8B with 3.6% FCF margin demonstrates cash-generative business model
  • + Exceptional ROE of 23.4% and solid ROA of 4.8% indicate efficient capital deployment
  • + Interest coverage ratio of 5.6x provides adequate debt service capacity and financial stability
  • + Operating margin of 6.2% reflects strong operational execution in refining operations
ChatGPT
  • + Strong cash generation with $8.25B operating cash flow and $4.77B free cash flow
  • + Stable earnings profile with net income up slightly year over year despite lower revenue
  • + Healthy returns on capital metrics, including 23.4% ROE, supported by meaningful operating income

MPC Stock Risks: Marathon Petroleum Corp Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Revenue decline of 4.4% YoY signals weakness in demand or refining spreads
  • ! High leverage with 1.76x debt-to-equity ratio and 30.5B long-term debt limits financial flexibility
  • ! Quick ratio of 0.74x indicates potential short-term liquidity pressure despite adequate current ratio
  • ! Cyclical industry exposure creates earnings volatility dependent on crude oil and product prices
ChatGPT
  • ! High leverage with $30.50B long-term debt and 1.76x debt-to-equity
  • ! Low-margin business profile with 6.2% operating margin and 3.0% net margin
  • ! Growth quality is modest because revenue declined and EPS growth significantly exceeded net income growth

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Revenue trend and refining margin sustainability
  • * Debt reduction trajectory and debt-to-equity ratio improvement
  • * Free cash flow conversion and capital allocation priorities
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and free cash flow conversion
  • * Debt reduction progress and interest coverage

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$132.7B
Net Income
$4.0B
EPS (Diluted)
$13.22
Free Cash Flow
$4.8B
Total Assets
$84.0B
Cash Position
$3.7B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The relatively thin 3.6% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility.

MPC Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 6.2%
Net Margin 3.0%
ROE 23.4%
ROA 4.8%
FCF Margin 3.6%

MPC vs Energy Sector: How Marathon Petroleum Corp Compares

How Marathon Petroleum Corp compares to Energy sector averages

Net Margin
MPC 3.0%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
MPC Sector
ROE
MPC 23.4%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
MPC Sector
Current Ratio
MPC 1.3x
vs
Sector Avg 1.3x
MPC Sector
Debt/Equity
MPC 1.8x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
MPC Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock Overvalued? MPC Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Marathon Petroleum Corp has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Energy sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
23.4%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
3.0%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.76x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Marathon Petroleum Corp Balance Sheet: MPC Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.26x
Quick Ratio
0.74x
Debt/Equity
1.76x
Debt/Assets
71.3%
Interest Coverage
5.57x
Long-term Debt
$30.5B

MPC Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

MPC 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $120.0B, Net Income $2.6B, EPS $3.97. Year 2022: Revenue $177.5B, Net Income -$9.8B, EPS $-15.13. Year 2023: Revenue $177.5B, Net Income $9.7B, EPS $15.24. Year 2024: Revenue $177.5B, Net Income $14.5B, EPS $28.12. Year 2025: Revenue $148.4B, Net Income $9.7B, EPS $23.63.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Marathon Petroleum Corp's revenue has grown significantly by 24% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $23.63 reflects profitable operations.

MPC Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
3.6%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MPC Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Marathon Petroleum Corp including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $34.8B $622.0M $1.87
Q2 2025 $33.8B $1.1B $3.68
Q1 2025 $31.5B -$74.0M $-0.24
Q3 2024 $35.1B $622.0M $1.87
Q2 2024 $36.3B $1.5B $4.33
Q1 2024 $32.7B $937.0M $2.58
Q3 2023 $40.9B $3.3B $8.28
Q2 2023 $36.3B $2.2B $5.32

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Marathon Petroleum Corp Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$8.3B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$3.5B
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$3.5B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$1.1B
Returned to shareholders

MPC SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Marathon Petroleum Corp (CIK: 0001510295)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 13, 2026 8-K mpc-20260407.htm View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 16, 2026 DEF 14A mpc-20260316.htm View →
Mar 13, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 13, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MPC

What is the AI rating for MPC?

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 70% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MPC's key strengths?

Claude: Strong free cash flow generation of 4.8B with 3.6% FCF margin demonstrates cash-generative business model. Exceptional ROE of 23.4% and solid ROA of 4.8% indicate efficient capital deployment. ChatGPT: Strong cash generation with $8.25B operating cash flow and $4.77B free cash flow. Stable earnings profile with net income up slightly year over year despite lower revenue.

What are the risks of investing in MPC?

Claude: Revenue decline of 4.4% YoY signals weakness in demand or refining spreads. High leverage with 1.76x debt-to-equity ratio and 30.5B long-term debt limits financial flexibility. ChatGPT: High leverage with $30.50B long-term debt and 1.76x debt-to-equity. Low-margin business profile with 6.2% operating margin and 3.0% net margin.

What is MPC's revenue and growth?

Marathon Petroleum Corp reported revenue of $132.7B.

Does MPC pay dividends?

Marathon Petroleum Corp pays dividends, with $1,140.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find MPC SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Marathon Petroleum Corp (CIK: 0001510295) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MPC's EPS?

Marathon Petroleum Corp has a diluted EPS of $13.22.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MPC a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corp has a HOLD rating with 70% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is MPC stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MPC: ROE of 23.4% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of 3.0% (sector avg: 12%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy MPC stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Marathon Petroleum Corp a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MPC's free cash flow?

Marathon Petroleum Corp's operating cash flow is $8.3B, with capital expenditures of $3.5B. FCF margin is 3.6%.

How does MPC compare to other Energy stocks?

Vs Energy sector averages: Net margin 3.0% (avg: 12%), ROE 23.4% (avg: 14%), current ratio 1.26 (avg: 1.3).

Is Marathon Petroleum Corp carrying too much debt?

MPC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.76x, which is above the Energy sector average of 0.6x. However, the current ratio of 1.26 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 19, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI