📊 JOE Key Takeaways
Is ST JOE Co (JOE) a Good Investment?
ST JOE demonstrates exceptional operational efficiency with 43.1% gross margins and 28.5% operating margins while generating strong free cash flow of $186.6M (36.4% FCF margin). The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with moderate 0.51x debt-to-equity leverage and commanding 17.1x interest coverage, supported by 27.4% revenue growth. However, net income remained flat year-over-year despite strong revenue expansion, signaling potential margin compression or operational headwinds that warrant monitoring before aggressive accumulation.
St. Joe demonstrates strong fundamentals with 27% revenue growth, robust margins (28.5% operating, 22.5% net), and excellent cash generation (36% FCF margin) supported by moderate leverage and high interest coverage. While net income was flat YoY, EPS rose sharply and the balance sheet plus cash flow provide ample capacity to fund development and capital returns. Execution and cyclicality risks remain, but the quality of earnings and balance sheet strength support a positive outlook.
Why Buy ST JOE Co Stock? JOE Key Strengths
- Exceptional profitability with 43.1% gross margin and 28.5% operating margin indicating strong pricing power and operational control
- Outstanding free cash flow generation of $186.6M with 36.4% FCF margin on minimal $4.1M capex, demonstrating asset-light business model
- Healthy balance sheet with moderate 0.51x debt-to-equity ratio and fortress-like 17.1x interest coverage ratio indicating low financial distress risk
- Strong 27.4% revenue growth with solid 15.1% ROE demonstrating effective capital deployment
- High profitability (gross/operating/net margins) with solid ROE
- Strong cash generation and FCF conversion
- Moderate leverage with very strong interest coverage and ample liquidity
JOE Stock Risks: ST JOE Co Investment Risks
- Net income flat year-over-year despite 27.4% revenue growth signals margin compression, potential operational deleverage, or unrecognized cost pressures
- Real estate and land development sector exposure creates cyclical sensitivity to housing demand, interest rates, and economic downturns
- EPS growth (56.7%) significantly outpacing net income growth (0.0%) suggests aggressive share repurchases masking underlying earnings weakness
- Long-term debt of $391.2M represents substantial fixed obligations that could constrain financial flexibility in a downturn
- Land development business inherently exposed to economic cycles, credit availability, and consumer discretionary spending patterns
- Cyclicality and interest-rate sensitivity in real estate/hospitality
- Geographic concentration and weather/regulatory exposure in Florida
- Earnings/margin volatility from project timing; flat YoY net income
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating margin trend - monitor for margin expansion or compression as revenue scales to validate profitability sustainability
- Net income growth acceleration - critical to confirm revenue growth translates to bottom-line earnings expansion
- Free cash flow maintenance - ensure FCF margins remain above 35% as business grows to validate capital efficiency
- Debt trajectory and leverage ratios - track absolute debt levels and D/E ratio to ensure manageable financial structure
- Gross margin stability - watch for pricing pressure or cost inflation that could compress contribution margins
- Gross and operating margin trend
- Backlog/lot sales pace and hospitality occupancy/ADR
ST JOE Co (JOE) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios
💡 AI Analyst Insight
The 36.4% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.
JOE Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis
JOE vs Real Estate Sector: How ST JOE Co Compares
How ST JOE Co compares to Real Estate sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is ST JOE Co Stock Overvalued? JOE Valuation Analysis 2026
Based on fundamental analysis, ST JOE Co appears fundamentally strong relative to the Real Estate sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
ST JOE Co Balance Sheet: JOE Debt, Cash & Liquidity
JOE Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: ST JOE Co's revenue has grown significantly by 220% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.33 reflects profitable operations.
JOE Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance
JOE Quarterly Earnings & Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $99.0M | $16.8M | $0.29 |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6M | $24.5M | $0.42 |
| Q1 2025 | $87.8M | $13.9M | $0.24 |
| Q3 2024 | $99.0M | $16.8M | $0.29 |
| Q2 2024 | $111.6M | $24.5M | $0.42 |
| Q1 2024 | $73.0M | $10.4M | $0.18 |
| Q3 2023 | $57.6M | $12.3M | $0.21 |
| Q2 2023 | $68.3M | $17.0M | $0.29 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
ST JOE Co Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation
JOE SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for ST JOE Co (CIK: 0000745308)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about JOE
What is the AI rating for JOE?
ST JOE Co (JOE) has a Combined AI Rating of BUY from Claude (BUY) and ChatGPT (BUY) with 74% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are JOE's key strengths?
Claude: Exceptional profitability with 43.1% gross margin and 28.5% operating margin indicating strong pricing power and operational control. Outstanding free cash flow generation of $186.6M with 36.4% FCF margin on minimal $4.1M capex, demonstrating asset-light business model. ChatGPT: High profitability (gross/operating/net margins) with solid ROE. Strong cash generation and FCF conversion.
What are the risks of investing in JOE?
Claude: Net income flat year-over-year despite 27.4% revenue growth signals margin compression, potential operational deleverage, or unrecognized cost pressures. Real estate and land development sector exposure creates cyclical sensitivity to housing demand, interest rates, and economic downturns. ChatGPT: Cyclicality and interest-rate sensitivity in real estate/hospitality. Geographic concentration and weather/regulatory exposure in Florida.
What is JOE's revenue and growth?
ST JOE Co reported revenue of $513.2M.
Does JOE pay dividends?
ST JOE Co pays dividends, with $33.6M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find JOE SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for ST JOE Co (CIK: 0000745308) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is JOE's EPS?
ST JOE Co has a diluted EPS of $1.99.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is JOE a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, ST JOE Co has a BUY rating with 74% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.
Is JOE stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for JOE: ROE of 15.1% (sector avg: 8%), net margin of 22.5% (sector avg: 20%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.
Should I buy JOE stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives ST JOE Co a combined BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is JOE's free cash flow?
ST JOE Co's operating cash flow is $190.7M, with capital expenditures of $4.1M. FCF margin is 36.4%.
How does JOE compare to other Real Estate stocks?
Vs Real Estate sector averages: Net margin 22.5% (avg: 20%), ROE 15.1% (avg: 8%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.5).