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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

FWRG Nasdaq Retail-Eating Places DE CIK: 0001789940
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 25, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-28
Combined AI Rating
SELL
76% Confidence
AGREEMENT
SELL
75% Conf
HOLD
76% Conf

📊 FWRG Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.2B
Net Margin: 1.6%
Free Cash Flow: $-31.0M
Current Ratio: 0.29x
Debt/Equity: 0.43x
EPS: $0.31
AI Rating: SELL with 75% confidence
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) receives a SELL rating with 76% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $1.2B, net profit margin of 1.6%, and return on equity (ROE) of 3.1%, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Consumer sector. Below is our complete FWRG stock analysis for 2026.

Is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) a Good Investment?

Claude

First Watch exhibits concerning operational inefficiency despite strong revenue growth of 20.3% YoY, as evidenced by razor-thin net margins of 1.6% and negative free cash flow of -31.0M. The company's capital intensity (CapEx exceeding operating cash flow by 31M annually) combined with weak liquidity ratios (0.29x current ratio) and modest interest coverage (1.5x) suggests financial stress despite growing top-line.

ChatGPT

First Watch shows strong top-line momentum, with revenue up 20.3% year over year and solid operating cash generation, indicating continued unit growth and customer demand. However, profitability remains thin, free cash flow is negative, and liquidity is weak, which limits financial flexibility and makes the growth profile lower quality until margins and cash conversion improve.

Why Buy First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Stock? FWRG Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong revenue growth of 20.3% YoY demonstrates market demand and expansion
  • + Positive operating cash flow of 125.9M provides cash generation for operations
  • + Moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43x indicates reasonable leverage levels
ChatGPT
  • + Strong revenue growth of 20.3% YoY indicates healthy expansion and demand
  • + Positive operating cash flow of $125.91M shows the core business generates cash
  • + Moderate debt/equity of 0.43x keeps balance sheet leverage manageable relative to equity

FWRG Stock Risks: First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -31.0M indicates capital expenditures exceed operational cash generation, unsustainable long-term
  • ! Critical liquidity position with current ratio of 0.29x raises concerns about ability to meet short-term obligations
  • ! Extremely low net margin of 1.6% and operating margin of 2.3% show minimal profitability despite scale, suggesting structural margin compression in restaurant operations
  • ! Low interest coverage ratio of 1.5x leaves minimal cushion for debt service if operations deteriorate
  • ! Weak returns on equity (3.1%) and assets (1.1%) indicate inefficient capital deployment
ChatGPT
  • ! Very thin operating margin of 2.3% and net margin of 1.6% leave little room for execution missteps
  • ! Negative free cash flow due to capital expenditure of $156.91M raises questions about growth efficiency
  • ! Weak liquidity and low interest coverage of 1.5x increase financial risk if costs rise or traffic slows

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Free cash flow trajectory and ability to achieve positive FCF within 12 months
  • * Net profit margin expansion as revenue growth continues
  • * Current ratio improvement and working capital management
  • * Capital expenditure efficiency and payoff periods for new store investments
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability and cash conversion from revenue growth
ChatGPT
  • * Free cash flow and capital expenditure intensity
  • * Operating margin and interest coverage

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$1.2B
Net Income
$19.4M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.31
Free Cash Flow
$-31.0M
Total Assets
$1.7B
Cash Position
$21.2M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

FWRG Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 2.3%
Net Margin 1.6%
ROE 3.1%
ROA 1.1%
FCF Margin -2.5%

FWRG vs Consumer Sector: How First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Compares

How First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. compares to Consumer sector averages

Net Margin
FWRG 1.6%
vs
Sector Avg 8.0%
FWRG Sector
ROE
FWRG 3.1%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
FWRG Sector
Current Ratio
FWRG 0.3x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
FWRG Sector
Debt/Equity
FWRG 0.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.8x
FWRG Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Stock Overvalued? FWRG Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Consumer sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
3.1%
Sector avg: 18%
Net Profit Margin
1.6%
Sector avg: 8%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.43x
Sector avg: 0.8x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Balance Sheet: FWRG Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.29x
Quick Ratio
0.25x
Debt/Equity
0.43x
Debt/Assets
64.0%
Interest Coverage
1.47x
Long-term Debt
$267.6M

FWRG Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

FWRG 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $601.2M, Net Income -$45.4M, EPS $-1.01. Year 2022: Revenue $730.2M, Net Income -$49.7M, EPS $-1.10. Year 2023: Revenue $891.6M, Net Income -$2.1M, EPS $-0.04. Year 2024: Revenue $1.0B, Net Income $6.9M, EPS $0.11. Year 2025: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $25.4M, EPS $0.41.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 103% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.41 reflects profitable operations.

FWRG Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-2.5%
Free cash flow / Revenue

FWRG Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $251.6M -$829.0K $0.03
Q2 2025 $258.6M -$829.0K $0.02
Q1 2025 $242.4M -$829.0K $-0.01
Q3 2024 $219.2M $2.1M $0.03
Q2 2024 $216.3M $7.2M $0.13
Q1 2024 $211.4M $7.2M $0.12
Q3 2023 $186.9M $46.0K $0.00
Q2 2023 $184.5M $2.7M $0.05

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$125.9M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$156.9M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

FWRG SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (CIK: 0001789940)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 8, 2026 DEF 14A fwrg-20260408.htm View →
Mar 27, 2026 8-K fwrg-20260327.htm View →
Mar 19, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1773950876.xml View →
Mar 19, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1773950856.xml View →
Mar 19, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1773950828.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about FWRG

What is the AI rating for FWRG?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 76% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are FWRG's key strengths?

Claude: Strong revenue growth of 20.3% YoY demonstrates market demand and expansion. Positive operating cash flow of 125.9M provides cash generation for operations. ChatGPT: Strong revenue growth of 20.3% YoY indicates healthy expansion and demand. Positive operating cash flow of $125.91M shows the core business generates cash.

What are the risks of investing in FWRG?

Claude: Negative free cash flow of -31.0M indicates capital expenditures exceed operational cash generation, unsustainable long-term. Critical liquidity position with current ratio of 0.29x raises concerns about ability to meet short-term obligations. ChatGPT: Very thin operating margin of 2.3% and net margin of 1.6% leave little room for execution missteps. Negative free cash flow due to capital expenditure of $156.91M raises questions about growth efficiency.

What is FWRG's revenue and growth?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.2B.

Does FWRG pay dividends?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find FWRG SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (CIK: 0001789940) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is FWRG's EPS?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $0.31.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is FWRG a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. has a SELL rating with 76% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is FWRG stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for FWRG: ROE of 3.1% (sector avg: 18%), net margin of 1.6% (sector avg: 8%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy FWRG stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is FWRG's free cash flow?

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $125.9M, with capital expenditures of $156.9M. FCF margin is -2.5%.

How does FWRG compare to other Consumer stocks?

Vs Consumer sector averages: Net margin 1.6% (avg: 8%), ROE 3.1% (avg: 18%), current ratio 0.29 (avg: 1.5).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 25, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-28 | Powered by Claude AI