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Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

FLY Nasdaq Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts DE CIK: 0001860160
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 25, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
85% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
SELL
92% Conf
SELL
78% Conf

📊 FLY Key Takeaways

Revenue: $159.9M
Net Margin: -186.6%
Free Cash Flow: $-237.8M
Current Ratio: 4.51x
Debt/Equity: 0.24x
EPS: $-4.83
AI Rating: SELL with 92% confidence
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) receives a SELL rating with 85% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $159.9M, net profit margin of -186.6%, and return on equity (ROE) of -25.1%, Firefly Aerospace Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Market sector. Below is our complete FLY stock analysis for 2026.

Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) a Good Investment?

Claude

Firefly Aerospace is a pre-revenue aerospace company burning substantial cash with operating losses exceeding $260M despite 163% revenue growth, indicating severe cost structure misalignment and execution challenges. While the company maintains adequate liquidity with $793M in cash and low leverage, the negative free cash flow of -$237.8M at -148.7% margin suggests the current burn rate is unsustainable without significant operational improvements or continued external funding.

ChatGPT

Firefly Aerospace is delivering exceptional top-line growth, but the underlying fundamentals remain weak because losses and cash burn are still far larger than gross profit generation. The balance sheet is currently strong, with substantial cash, high liquidity, and modest leverage, but growth quality is questionable until operating leverage improves materially and free cash flow trends toward sustainability.

Why Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc. Stock? FLY Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong revenue growth of 163% YoY demonstrates market demand and customer acquisition
  • + Substantial cash position of $793M provides runway for operations and capital investment
  • + Low leverage with debt-to-equity of 0.24x limits financial distress risk
  • + Excellent liquidity with 4.51x current ratio supports short-term obligations
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue growth is very strong at +163.0% YoY, showing rising commercial traction
  • + Liquidity is robust with $792.97M in cash and a 4.51x current ratio
  • + Leverage remains manageable with debt-to-equity of 0.24x and a large equity base

FLY Stock Risks: Firefly Aerospace Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Severe operating losses of -$260.7M with -163.1% operating margin indicate fundamental business model challenges
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$237.8M annually creates existential sustainability concerns without funding
  • ! Net margin of -186.6% shows company loses $1.87 per dollar of revenue, signaling massive unprofitability
  • ! Negative cash flow from operations of -$204.9M suggests core business cannot sustain itself
  • ! High insider trading activity (13 Form 4s in 90 days) may indicate confidence or insider exit activity requiring scrutiny
ChatGPT
  • ! Operating and net margins are deeply negative, indicating the business model is not yet close to profitable at scale
  • ! Free cash flow of -$237.75M and negative operating cash flow create continued dependence on cash reserves or future financing
  • ! Interest coverage is negative, highlighting weak earnings support for debt obligations

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating cash flow trend and path to positive cash conversion
  • * Gross margin sustainability and operating leverage as scale increases
  • * Monthly cash burn rate and runway duration given current burn trajectory
  • * Revenue per employee and unit economics as proxy for business model viability
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin improvement relative to revenue growth
  • * Free cash flow burn and quarterly cash balance trend

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$159.9M
Net Income
$-298.3M
EPS (Diluted)
$-4.83
Free Cash Flow
$-237.8M
Total Assets
$1.8B
Cash Position
$793.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 4.51x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

FLY Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 19.2%
Operating Margin -163.1%
Net Margin -186.6%
ROE -25.1%
ROA -16.3%
FCF Margin -148.7%

FLY vs Market Sector: How Firefly Aerospace Inc. Compares

How Firefly Aerospace Inc. compares to Market sector averages

Net Margin
FLY -186.6%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
FLY Sector
ROE
FLY -25.1%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
FLY Sector
Current Ratio
FLY 4.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
FLY Sector
Debt/Equity
FLY 0.2x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
FLY Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. Stock Overvalued? FLY Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Firefly Aerospace Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Market sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-25.1%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
-186.6%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.24x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. Balance Sheet: FLY Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
4.51x
Quick Ratio
4.51x
Debt/Equity
0.24x
Debt/Assets
34.8%
Interest Coverage
-16.37x
Long-term Debt
$288.8M

FLY Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

FLY 5-year financial data: Year 2025: Revenue $159.9M, Net Income -$135.5M, EPS $-13.05.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 0% decline. The most recent EPS of $-13.05 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

FLY Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-148.7%
Free cash flow / Revenue

FLY Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Firefly Aerospace Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $22.4M -$40.8M $-1.50
Q2 2025 $15.5M -$52.8M $-4.60

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$204.9M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$32.8M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

FLY SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (CIK: 0001860160)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 10, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 8-K d118914d8k.htm View →
Mar 25, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Mar 20, 2026 4 xslF345X06/ownership.xml View →
Mar 20, 2026 10-K fly-20251231.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about FLY

What is the AI rating for FLY?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 85% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are FLY's key strengths?

Claude: Strong revenue growth of 163% YoY demonstrates market demand and customer acquisition. Substantial cash position of $793M provides runway for operations and capital investment. ChatGPT: Revenue growth is very strong at +163.0% YoY, showing rising commercial traction. Liquidity is robust with $792.97M in cash and a 4.51x current ratio.

What are the risks of investing in FLY?

Claude: Severe operating losses of -$260.7M with -163.1% operating margin indicate fundamental business model challenges. Negative free cash flow of -$237.8M annually creates existential sustainability concerns without funding. ChatGPT: Operating and net margins are deeply negative, indicating the business model is not yet close to profitable at scale. Free cash flow of -$237.75M and negative operating cash flow create continued dependence on cash reserves or future financing.

What is FLY's revenue and growth?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. reported revenue of $159.9M.

Does FLY pay dividends?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find FLY SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (CIK: 0001860160) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is FLY's EPS?

Firefly Aerospace Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-4.83.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is FLY a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. has a SELL rating with 85% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is FLY stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for FLY: ROE of -25.1% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of -186.6% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy FLY stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Firefly Aerospace Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is FLY's free cash flow?

Firefly Aerospace Inc.'s operating cash flow is $-204.9M, with capital expenditures of $32.8M. FCF margin is -148.7%.

How does FLY compare to other Market stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin -186.6% (avg: 12%), ROE -25.1% (avg: 15%), current ratio 4.51 (avg: 1.8).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 25, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI