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Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

ESTC NYSE Services-Prepackaged Software P7 CIK: 0001707753
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 24, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-01-31
Combined AI Rating
HOLD
70% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
HOLD
62% Conf
HOLD
77% Conf

📊 ESTC Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.3B
Net Margin: -5.3%
Free Cash Flow: $172.0M
Current Ratio: 1.82x
Debt/Equity: 0.72x
EPS: $-0.64
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) receives a HOLD rating with 70% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $1.3B, net profit margin of -5.3%, and return on equity (ROE) of -8.6%, Elastic N.V. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Technology sector. Below is our complete ESTC stock analysis for 2026.

Is Elastic N.V. (ESTC) a Good Investment?

Claude

Elastic demonstrates strong revenue growth (17% YoY) and exceptional cash generation (13.3% FCF margin) with a healthy balance sheet, but persistent unprofitability (-5.3% net margin) and negative earnings momentum (-276.3% EPS decline) create uncertainty about the path to sustained profitability. The company's software-as-a-service model shows operational promise with improving operating cash flow, yet operating losses and declining earnings quality warrant caution.

ChatGPT

Elastic shows solid top-line momentum with 17.0% revenue growth, strong 76.3% gross margins, and healthy free cash flow generation, indicating a resilient software model with improving scale economics. However, the business remains GAAP unprofitable, with negative operating margin, negative ROE, and weak interest coverage, so the fundamentals support a constructive but cautious stance rather than a clearly bullish one.

Why Buy Elastic N.V. Stock? ESTC Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong revenue growth of 17% YoY indicates solid market demand for search and analytics platform
  • + Excellent free cash flow generation of $172M (13.3% FCF margin) demonstrates underlying business strength despite GAAP losses
  • + Solid balance sheet with $737.2M cash, low leverage (0.72x Debt/Equity), and strong liquidity (1.82x current ratio)
  • + High gross margin of 76.3% typical of high-quality SaaS businesses with strong pricing power
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue growth remains strong at 17.0% YoY, indicating continued demand and solid execution
  • + High gross margin of 76.3% supports attractive unit economics and long-term operating leverage potential
  • + Free cash flow of $171.99M and cash balance of $737.24M provide meaningful financial flexibility

ESTC Stock Risks: Elastic N.V. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Persistent unprofitability with -5.3% net margin and -1.3% operating margin despite scale indicates challenges in converting revenue to profits
  • ! Sharp deterioration in EPS performance (-276.3% YoY decline) suggests increasing losses and negative earnings momentum
  • ! Negative interest coverage ratio (-0.9x) indicates inability to cover debt service from operating earnings, relying on cash reserves
  • ! Negative ROE (-8.6%) and ROA (-2.8%) demonstrate inefficient capital utilization and shareholder value destruction
ChatGPT
  • ! Net income and operating income remain negative, showing profitability has not fully scaled with growth
  • ! Interest coverage is negative, indicating earnings are currently insufficient to comfortably cover financing costs
  • ! EPS deterioration suggests shareholder returns remain pressured despite revenue growth and positive cash flow

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating margin trend toward profitability - critical to achieve positive operating income within 2-3 quarters
  • * Net income and EPS trajectory - need to see reversal of losses to demonstrate sustainable business model
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability - ensure FCF generation continues as company scales
  • * Cash burn rate and runway - monitor depletion of $737M cash reserve if losses continue
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin trend toward sustained GAAP profitability
  • * Free cash flow margin durability as revenue continues to scale

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$1.3B
Net Income
$-68.1M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.64
Free Cash Flow
$172.0M
Total Assets
$2.4B
Cash Position
$737.2M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Elastic N.V. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

ESTC Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 76.3%
Operating Margin -1.3%
Net Margin -5.3%
ROE -8.6%
ROA -2.8%
FCF Margin 13.3%

ESTC vs Technology Sector: How Elastic N.V. Compares

How Elastic N.V. compares to Technology sector averages

Net Margin
ESTC -5.3%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
ESTC Sector
ROE
ESTC -8.6%
vs
Sector Avg 22.0%
ESTC Sector
Current Ratio
ESTC 1.8x
vs
Sector Avg 2.5x
ESTC Sector
Debt/Equity
ESTC 0.7x
vs
Sector Avg 0.5x
ESTC Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Elastic N.V. Stock Overvalued? ESTC Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Elastic N.V. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Technology sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-8.6%
Sector avg: 22%
Net Profit Margin
-5.3%
Sector avg: 18%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Sector avg: 0.5x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Elastic N.V. Balance Sheet: ESTC Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.82x
Quick Ratio
1.82x
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Debt/Assets
67.6%
Interest Coverage
-0.90x
Long-term Debt
$570.6M

ESTC Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

ESTC 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $608.5M, Net Income -$102.3M, EPS N/A. Year 2022: Revenue $862.4M, Net Income -$167.2M, EPS $-2.12. Year 2023: Revenue $1.1B, Net Income -$129.4M, EPS $-1.48. Year 2024: Revenue $1.3B, Net Income -$203.8M, EPS $-2.20. Year 2025: Revenue $1.5B, Net Income -$236.2M, EPS $-2.47.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Elastic N.V.'s revenue has grown significantly by 144% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-2.47 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

ESTC Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
13.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

ESTC Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Elastic N.V. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2026 $382.1M $7.8M $0.07
Q2 2026 $365.4M -$25.5M $-0.25
Q1 2026 $347.4M -$24.6M $-0.23
Q3 2025 $328.0M -$17.1M $-0.16
Q2 2025 $310.6M -$24.8M $-0.25
Q3 2024 $274.6M -$72.6M $-0.76
Q2 2024 $264.4M -$24.8M $-0.74
Q1 2024 $250.1M -$48.5M N/A

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Elastic N.V. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$174.2M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$300.1M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$2.2M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

ESTC SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Elastic N.V. (CIK: 0001707753)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about ESTC

What is the AI rating for ESTC?

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 70% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are ESTC's key strengths?

Claude: Strong revenue growth of 17% YoY indicates solid market demand for search and analytics platform. Excellent free cash flow generation of $172M (13.3% FCF margin) demonstrates underlying business strength despite GAAP losses. ChatGPT: Revenue growth remains strong at 17.0% YoY, indicating continued demand and solid execution. High gross margin of 76.3% supports attractive unit economics and long-term operating leverage potential.

What are the risks of investing in ESTC?

Claude: Persistent unprofitability with -5.3% net margin and -1.3% operating margin despite scale indicates challenges in converting revenue to profits. Sharp deterioration in EPS performance (-276.3% YoY decline) suggests increasing losses and negative earnings momentum. ChatGPT: Net income and operating income remain negative, showing profitability has not fully scaled with growth. Interest coverage is negative, indicating earnings are currently insufficient to comfortably cover financing costs.

What is ESTC's revenue and growth?

Elastic N.V. reported revenue of $1.3B.

Does ESTC pay dividends?

Elastic N.V. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find ESTC SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Elastic N.V. (CIK: 0001707753) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is ESTC's EPS?

Elastic N.V. has a diluted EPS of $-0.64.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is ESTC a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Elastic N.V. has a HOLD rating with 70% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is ESTC stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for ESTC: ROE of -8.6% (sector avg: 22%), net margin of -5.3% (sector avg: 18%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy ESTC stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Elastic N.V. a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is ESTC's free cash flow?

Elastic N.V.'s operating cash flow is $174.2M, with capital expenditures of $2.2M. FCF margin is 13.3%.

How does ESTC compare to other Technology stocks?

Vs Technology sector averages: Net margin -5.3% (avg: 18%), ROE -8.6% (avg: 22%), current ratio 1.82 (avg: 2.5).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 24, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-01-31 | Powered by Claude AI