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Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. (BXMT) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

BXMT NYSE Real Estate Investment Trusts MD CIK: 0001061630
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 21, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
📅 Next earnings: Apr 29, 2026 (in 13 days) • Pre-market ET • EPS est. $0.34 (vs $0.13 prior year) • All earnings →
Combined AI Rating
SELL
70% Confidence
AGREEMENT
HOLD
62% Conf
SELL
78% Conf

📊 BXMT Key Takeaways

Revenue: $552.8M
Net Margin: 19.8%
Free Cash Flow: $275.9M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 4.01x
EPS: $0.64
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. (BXMT) receives a SELL rating with 70% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $552.8M, net profit margin of 19.8%, and return on equity (ROE) of 3.1%, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Real Estate sector. Below is our complete BXMT stock analysis for 2026.

Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. (BXMT) a Good Investment?

Claude

BXMT demonstrates solid profitability with 19.8% net margin and strong free cash flow generation (49.9% FCF margin), supporting its mortgage REIT model. However, critically weak interest coverage (0.3x) and extreme leverage (4.01x debt/equity) present significant financial stress, requiring careful monitoring of interest rate environment and refinancing risk.

ChatGPT

BXMT shows some stabilization in revenue and earnings, with revenue up 10.9% year over year and positive operating cash flow generation. However, the overall fundamental picture remains weak because profitability on capital is low, leverage is elevated, and interest coverage of 0.3x signals meaningful financing strain. The business appears operationally resilient in the short term, but growth quality and balance sheet risk do not support a favorable fundamental outlook.

Why Buy Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Stock? BXMT Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong net profit margin of 19.8% with revenue growth of 10.9% YoY
  • + Excellent free cash flow generation at 49.9% FCF margin, covering distributions
  • + Substantial asset base of $20B with diversified mortgage portfolio
  • + Operating cash flow of $275.9M provides consistent cash generation
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue growth is positive at 10.9% year over year
  • + Operating cash flow is solid at $275.87M with strong cash conversion
  • + Net income remained positive and EPS improved sharply year over year

BXMT Stock Risks: Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Critically low interest coverage ratio of 0.3x indicates debt servicing stress and vulnerability to rate increases
  • ! Extreme leverage at 4.01x debt/equity ratio creates refinancing and insolvency risk
  • ! ROE of 3.1% and ROA of 0.5% are very low, indicating poor capital efficiency
  • ! Flat net income growth (0.0% YoY) despite revenue growth suggests margin compression or rising costs
  • ! High interest rate sensitivity typical of mortgage REITs creates earnings volatility risk
ChatGPT
  • ! Debt/equity of 4.01x indicates heavy balance sheet leverage
  • ! Interest coverage of 0.3x suggests weak ability to cover financing costs from operations
  • ! ROE of 3.1% and ROA of 0.5% point to low underlying returns and modest earnings power

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Interest coverage ratio trend - critical threshold for debt service sustainability
  • * Operating margin stability - any further compression indicates operational stress
  • * Debt/equity ratio movement - deleveraging required to reduce refinancing risk
  • * Net interest margin and portfolio yield - direct impact on profitability in rising rate environment
  • * Quarterly dividend coverage by FCF - sustainability of distributions
ChatGPT
  • * Interest coverage and financing costs
  • * Non-accruals, loan losses, and book equity stability

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. (BXMT) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$552.8M
Net Income
$109.6M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.64
Free Cash Flow
$275.9M
Total Assets
$20.0B
Cash Position
$452.5M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 49.9% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

BXMT Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 20.5%
Net Margin 19.8%
ROE 3.1%
ROA 0.5%
FCF Margin 49.9%

BXMT vs Real Estate Sector: How Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Compares

How Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. compares to Real Estate sector averages

Net Margin
BXMT 19.8%
vs
Sector Avg 20.0%
BXMT Sector
ROE
BXMT 3.1%
vs
Sector Avg 8.0%
BXMT Sector
Current Ratio
BXMT 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
BXMT Sector
Debt/Equity
BXMT 4.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
BXMT Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Stock Overvalued? BXMT Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Real Estate sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
3.1%
Sector avg: 8%
Net Profit Margin
19.8%
Sector avg: 20%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
4.01x
Sector avg: 1.5x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Balance Sheet: BXMT Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
4.01x
Debt/Assets
82.5%
Interest Coverage
0.33x
Long-term Debt
$14.0B

BXMT Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

BXMT 5-year financial data: Year 2013: Revenue $37.0M, Net Income N/A, EPS N/A. Year 2014: Revenue $58.3M, Net Income N/A, EPS N/A.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc..'s revenue has grown significantly by 57% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.43 reflects profitable operations.

BXMT Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
49.9%
Free cash flow / Revenue

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$275.9M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$109.5M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Dividends Paid
$322.7M
Returned to shareholders

BXMT SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. (CIK: 0001061630)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 1, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775081445.xml View →
Mar 18, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1773873092.xml View →
Feb 11, 2026 8-K d10015d8k.htm View →
Feb 11, 2026 8-K bxmt-20260211.htm View →
Feb 11, 2026 10-K bxmt-20251231.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about BXMT

What is the AI rating for BXMT?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. (BXMT) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 70% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are BXMT's key strengths?

Claude: Strong net profit margin of 19.8% with revenue growth of 10.9% YoY. Excellent free cash flow generation at 49.9% FCF margin, covering distributions. ChatGPT: Revenue growth is positive at 10.9% year over year. Operating cash flow is solid at $275.87M with strong cash conversion.

What are the risks of investing in BXMT?

Claude: Critically low interest coverage ratio of 0.3x indicates debt servicing stress and vulnerability to rate increases. Extreme leverage at 4.01x debt/equity ratio creates refinancing and insolvency risk. ChatGPT: Debt/equity of 4.01x indicates heavy balance sheet leverage. Interest coverage of 0.3x suggests weak ability to cover financing costs from operations.

What is BXMT's revenue and growth?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. reported revenue of $552.8M.

Does BXMT pay dividends?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. pays dividends, with $322.7M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find BXMT SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. (CIK: 0001061630) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is BXMT's EPS?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. has a diluted EPS of $0.64.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is BXMT a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. has a SELL rating with 70% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is BXMT stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for BXMT: ROE of 3.1% (sector avg: 8%), net margin of 19.8% (sector avg: 20%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy BXMT stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is BXMT's free cash flow?

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc..'s operating cash flow is $275.9M, with capital expenditures of N/A. FCF margin is 49.9%.

How does BXMT compare to other Real Estate stocks?

Vs Real Estate sector averages: Net margin 19.8% (avg: 20%), ROE 3.1% (avg: 8%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.5).

Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.. carrying too much debt?

BXMT has a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.01x, which is above the Real Estate sector average of 1.5x. Combined with a current ratio below 1, this warrants careful monitoring of the balance sheet.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 21, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI