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Alaska Air Group, Inc.. (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

ALK NYSE Air Transportation, Scheduled DE CIK: 0000766421
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 19, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
📅 Next earnings: Apr 20, 2026 (in 4 days) • After-hours ET • All earnings →
Combined AI Rating
SELL
74% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
SELL
75% Conf
SELL
74% Conf

📊 ALK Key Takeaways

Revenue: $14.2B
Net Margin: 0.7%
Free Cash Flow: $1.2B
Current Ratio: 0.50x
Debt/Equity: 1.29x
EPS: $0.83
AI Rating: SELL with 75% confidence
Alaska Air Group, Inc.. (ALK) receives a SELL rating with 74% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $14.2B, net profit margin of 0.7%, and return on equity (ROE) of 2.4%, Alaska Air Group, Inc.. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Transportation sector. Below is our complete ALK stock analysis for 2026.

Is Alaska Air Group, Inc.. (ALK) a Good Investment?

Claude

Alaska Air Group faces significant profitability challenges despite strong revenue growth of 21.3% YoY, with net income collapsing 74.7% and net margins deteriorating to just 0.7%. The company operates with dangerously low liquidity (0.50x current ratio) and elevated leverage (1.29x debt-to-equity), creating vulnerability to operational disruptions or economic slowdown.

ChatGPT

Alaska Air Group is showing strong top-line growth, but that growth is not translating into durable profitability, with net income down 74.7% year over year and margins compressed to very low levels. The balance sheet adds pressure, as weak liquidity, elevated leverage, and only modest interest coverage reduce flexibility if operating conditions worsen. Strong operating cash flow is a positive, but overall fundamentals currently point to strained earnings quality rather than a healthy expansion.

Why Buy Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Stock? ALK Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong revenue growth of 21.3% YoY demonstrates sustained demand in air transportation
  • + Positive free cash flow of $1.2B with healthy 8.4% FCF margin provides operational cash generation
  • + Operating cash flow of $1.2B supports debt service and capital investments
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue growth of 21.3% year over year indicates strong demand or successful capacity/integration expansion
  • + Operating cash flow of $1.25B and free cash flow of $1.19B provide meaningful internal cash generation
  • + Positive net income and operating income show the business remains profitable despite heavy margin pressure

ALK Stock Risks: Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Severe profitability deterioration with net income down 74.7% YoY and net margin collapsing to 0.7%, indicating margin compression and cost control challenges
  • ! Critically low liquidity ratios (current ratio 0.50x, quick ratio 0.46x) with only $627M cash against $5.3B long-term debt creates financial stress
  • ! Weak return metrics (ROE 2.4%, ROA 0.5%) and operating margin of only 2.1% suggest operational inefficiency typical of distressed aviation operators
ChatGPT
  • ! Net income and diluted EPS fell sharply year over year, signaling significant deterioration in profitability
  • ! Current ratio of 0.50x and quick ratio of 0.46x indicate weak short-term liquidity
  • ! Debt/equity of 1.29x and interest coverage of 2.5x suggest leverage risk and limited cushion against higher financing or operating stress

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Net margin trend and path to profitability recovery
  • * Cash position and liquidity ratios given debt service obligations
  • * Operating margin expansion amid fuel and labor cost pressures
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and net margin recovery
  • * Debt reduction and liquidity improvement

Alaska Air Group, Inc.. (ALK) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$14.2B
Net Income
$100.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.83
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Total Assets
$20.4B
Cash Position
$627.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

ALK Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 2.1%
Net Margin 0.7%
ROE 2.4%
ROA 0.5%
FCF Margin 8.4%

ALK vs Transportation Sector: How Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Compares

How Alaska Air Group, Inc.. compares to Transportation sector averages

Net Margin
ALK 0.7%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
ALK Sector
ROE
ALK 2.4%
vs
Sector Avg 18.0%
ALK Sector
Current Ratio
ALK 0.5x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
ALK Sector
Debt/Equity
ALK 1.3x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
ALK Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Stock Overvalued? ALK Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Alaska Air Group, Inc.. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Transportation sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
2.4%
Sector avg: 18%
Net Profit Margin
0.7%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.29x
Sector avg: 1x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Balance Sheet: ALK Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.50x
Quick Ratio
0.46x
Debt/Equity
1.29x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
2.50x
Long-term Debt
$5.3B

ALK Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

ALK 5-year financial data: Year 2024: Revenue $11.7B, Net Income $58.0M, EPS $0.45. Year 2025: Revenue $14.2B, Net Income $235.0M, EPS $1.83.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Alaska Air Group, Inc..'s revenue has grown significantly by 21% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $1.83 reflects profitable operations.

ALK Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
8.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

ALK Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Alaska Air Group, Inc.. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $3.1B $73.0M $0.62
Q2 2025 $2.9B $6.0M $0.05
Q1 2025 $2.2B -$132.0M $-1.05
Q3 2024 $95.0M -$132.0M $1.08
Q2 2024 $2.8B $88.0M $0.69
Q1 2024 $2.2B -$132.0M $-1.05
Q3 2023 $2.8B $36.0M $0.28
Q2 2023 $2.7B -$4.0M $-0.03

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Alaska Air Group, Inc.. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$570.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$57.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

ALK SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Alaska Air Group, Inc.. (CIK: 0000766421)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 2, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775175169.xml View →
Mar 30, 2026 DEF 14A alk-20260330.htm View →
Mar 30, 2026 8-K alk-20260330.htm View →
Mar 23, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1774310915.xml View →
Feb 20, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1771625974.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about ALK

What is the AI rating for ALK?

Alaska Air Group, Inc.. (ALK) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 74% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are ALK's key strengths?

Claude: Strong revenue growth of 21.3% YoY demonstrates sustained demand in air transportation. Positive free cash flow of $1.2B with healthy 8.4% FCF margin provides operational cash generation. ChatGPT: Revenue growth of 21.3% year over year indicates strong demand or successful capacity/integration expansion. Operating cash flow of $1.25B and free cash flow of $1.19B provide meaningful internal cash generation.

What are the risks of investing in ALK?

Claude: Severe profitability deterioration with net income down 74.7% YoY and net margin collapsing to 0.7%, indicating margin compression and cost control challenges. Critically low liquidity ratios (current ratio 0.50x, quick ratio 0.46x) with only $627M cash against $5.3B long-term debt creates financial stress. ChatGPT: Net income and diluted EPS fell sharply year over year, signaling significant deterioration in profitability. Current ratio of 0.50x and quick ratio of 0.46x indicate weak short-term liquidity.

What is ALK's revenue and growth?

Alaska Air Group, Inc.. reported revenue of $14.2B.

Does ALK pay dividends?

Alaska Air Group, Inc.. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find ALK SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Alaska Air Group, Inc.. (CIK: 0000766421) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is ALK's EPS?

Alaska Air Group, Inc.. has a diluted EPS of $0.83.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is ALK a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Alaska Air Group, Inc.. has a SELL rating with 74% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is ALK stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for ALK: ROE of 2.4% (sector avg: 18%), net margin of 0.7% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy ALK stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Alaska Air Group, Inc.. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is ALK's free cash flow?

Alaska Air Group, Inc..'s operating cash flow is $1.2B, with capital expenditures of $57.0M. FCF margin is 8.4%.

How does ALK compare to other Transportation stocks?

Vs Transportation sector averages: Net margin 0.7% (avg: 10%), ROE 2.4% (avg: 18%), current ratio 0.50 (avg: 1).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 19, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI