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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

AGO NYSE Surety Insurance D0 CIK: 0001273813
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 19, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
BUY
80% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
BUY
78% Conf
BUY
81% Conf

📊 AGO Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.1B
Net Margin: 45.3%
Free Cash Flow: $259.0M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 0.30x
EPS: $10.26
AI Rating: BUY with 78% confidence
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) receives a BUY rating with 80% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $1.1B, net profit margin of 45.3%, and return on equity (ROE) of 8.9%, Assured Guaranty Ltd. demonstrates strong fundamentals in the Finance sector. Below is our complete AGO stock analysis for 2026.

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) a Good Investment?

Claude

Assured Guaranty demonstrates robust operational profitability with a 59.6% operating margin and exceptional cash generation (23.3% FCF margin), indicating a fundamentally healthy insurance business with strong underwriting discipline. The company maintains conservative leverage (0.30x debt/equity) and excellent interest coverage (28.8x), providing financial flexibility. However, modest ROE of 8.9% and slowing net income growth (+0.8% YoY) suggest capital deployment efficiency challenges that warrant monitoring.

ChatGPT

Assured Guaranty shows strong core profitability, with a 59.6% operating margin, 45.3% net margin, and very strong interest coverage, indicating a resilient earnings model and solid balance-sheet capacity. Financial health appears sound given moderate leverage and positive free cash flow, but growth quality is mixed because diluted EPS rose far faster than net income, suggesting per-share gains were likely helped materially by capital management rather than broad earnings expansion alone.

Why Buy Assured Guaranty Ltd. Stock? AGO Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Exceptional operating margin of 59.6% demonstrates pricing power and cost discipline in surety insurance business
  • + Strong free cash flow generation of $259M with 23.3% FCF margin provides sustainable capital returns
  • + Conservative balance sheet with 0.30x debt/equity ratio and 28.8x interest coverage ensures financial stability
  • + High net profit margin of 45.3% indicates strong core profitability despite reinsurance and claims costs
  • + Significant insider activity with 22 Form 4 filings in last 90 days suggests management confidence
ChatGPT
  • + High profitability with strong operating and net margins
  • + Solid financial health supported by moderate debt/equity and 28.8x interest coverage
  • + Positive operating cash flow and free cash flow generation

AGO Stock Risks: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Weak net income growth of only 0.8% YoY despite strong operating performance signals potential claims headwinds or margin compression
  • ! Low ROE of 8.9% and ROA of 4.1% indicate suboptimal returns on capital relative to equity base
  • ! Surety insurance exposure creates concentration risk in construction and infrastructure bond markets vulnerable to economic cycles
  • ! Limited revenue growth visibility with disclosed 1.1B baseline and uncertain YoY trajectory
  • ! Cash position of $388M represents only 3.2% of total assets, potentially constraining growth or shareholder distributions
ChatGPT
  • ! Net income growth is modest, indicating limited underlying earnings expansion
  • ! EPS growth materially outpaced net income growth, which may reduce growth quality if driven mainly by share count changes
  • ! Insurance and guarantee businesses can face lumpy reserve development and credit-cycle exposure

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Net income growth trajectory and margin trend in subsequent quarters to confirm stabilization
  • * Return on equity progression toward 10%+ threshold to validate capital efficiency improvements
  • * Free cash flow conversion consistency and sustainable payout capacity for capital returns
  • * Claims ratio and loss reserve adequacy in surety portfolio under varying economic conditions
  • * Underwriting profitability and premium volumes by business segment to assess growth quality
ChatGPT
  • * Net income growth relative to diluted EPS growth
  • * Operating cash flow and reserve/loss development trends

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$1.1B
Net Income
$503.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$10.26
Free Cash Flow
$259.0M
Total Assets
$12.2B
Cash Position
$388.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 23.3% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

AGO Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 59.6%
Net Margin 45.3%
ROE 8.9%
ROA 4.1%
FCF Margin 23.3%

AGO vs Finance Sector: How Assured Guaranty Ltd. Compares

How Assured Guaranty Ltd. compares to Finance sector averages

Net Margin
AGO 45.3%
vs
Sector Avg 25.0%
AGO Sector
ROE
AGO 8.9%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
AGO Sector
Current Ratio
AGO 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.2x
AGO Sector
Debt/Equity
AGO 0.3x
vs
Sector Avg 2.0x
AGO Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. Stock Overvalued? AGO Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Assured Guaranty Ltd. appears fundamentally strong relative to the Finance sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
8.9%
Sector avg: 12%
Net Profit Margin
45.3%
Sector avg: 25%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.30x
Sector avg: 2x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Balance Sheet: AGO Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
0.30x
Debt/Assets
52.5%
Interest Coverage
28.78x
Long-term Debt
$1.7B

AGO Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

AGO 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $89.0M, Net Income $402.0M, EPS $4.00. Year 2022: Revenue $93.0M, Net Income $362.0M, EPS $4.19. Year 2023: Revenue $93.0M, Net Income $389.0M, EPS $5.23. Year 2024: Revenue $93.0M, Net Income $124.0M, EPS $1.92. Year 2025: Revenue $53.0M, Net Income $739.0M, EPS $12.30.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s revenue has declined by 40% over the 5-year period, indicating business contraction. The most recent EPS of $12.30 reflects profitable operations.

AGO Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
23.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

AGO Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Assured Guaranty Ltd. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2024 N/A $157.0M $2.60
Q2 2024 N/A $78.0M $1.41
Q1 2024 N/A $81.0M $1.34
Q3 2023 N/A $11.0M $0.18
Q2 2023 $21.0M $19.0M $0.29
Q1 2023 $26.0M $66.0M $0.98
Q3 2022 $16.0M $11.0M $0.18
Q2 2022 $21.0M $19.0M $0.29

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$259.0M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$500.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Dividends Paid
$68.0M
Returned to shareholders

AGO SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (CIK: 0001273813)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 31, 2026 4 xslF345X06/marketforms-72820.xml View →
Mar 24, 2026 4 xslF345X06/marketforms-72735.xml View →
Mar 23, 2026 8-K ago-20260323.htm View →
Mar 23, 2026 4 xslF345X06/marketforms-72729.xml View →
Mar 19, 2026 8-K ago-20260313.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about AGO

What is the AI rating for AGO?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) has a Combined AI Rating of BUY from Claude (BUY) and ChatGPT (BUY) with 80% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are AGO's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional operating margin of 59.6% demonstrates pricing power and cost discipline in surety insurance business. Strong free cash flow generation of $259M with 23.3% FCF margin provides sustainable capital returns. ChatGPT: High profitability with strong operating and net margins. Solid financial health supported by moderate debt/equity and 28.8x interest coverage.

What are the risks of investing in AGO?

Claude: Weak net income growth of only 0.8% YoY despite strong operating performance signals potential claims headwinds or margin compression. Low ROE of 8.9% and ROA of 4.1% indicate suboptimal returns on capital relative to equity base. ChatGPT: Net income growth is modest, indicating limited underlying earnings expansion. EPS growth materially outpaced net income growth, which may reduce growth quality if driven mainly by share count changes.

What is AGO's revenue and growth?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported revenue of $1.1B.

Does AGO pay dividends?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. pays dividends, with $68.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find AGO SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (CIK: 0001273813) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is AGO's EPS?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. has a diluted EPS of $10.26.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is AGO a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. has a BUY rating with 80% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is AGO stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for AGO: ROE of 8.9% (sector avg: 12%), net margin of 45.3% (sector avg: 25%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy AGO stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Assured Guaranty Ltd. a combined BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is AGO's free cash flow?

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s operating cash flow is $259.0M, with capital expenditures of N/A. FCF margin is 23.3%.

How does AGO compare to other Finance stocks?

Vs Finance sector averages: Net margin 45.3% (avg: 25%), ROE 8.9% (avg: 12%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.2).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 19, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI