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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Fundamental Analysis & AI Grade 2026

AGO NYSE Surety Insurance D0 CIK: 0001273813
Update Pending • Analysis: May 9, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-03-31
Combined AI Grade
A
74% Confidence
AGREEMENT
B
68% Conf
A
81% Conf

📊 AGO Key Takeaways

Revenue: $261.0M
Net Margin: 33.7%
Free Cash Flow: $190.0M
Current Ratio: N/A
Debt/Equity: 0.31x
EPS: $1.91
AI Grade: B with 68% confidence
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) receives a A fundamental grade with 74% confidence from our AI analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $261.0M, net profit margin of 33.7%, and return on equity (ROE) of 1.6%, Assured Guaranty Ltd. demonstrates strong fundamentals in the Finance sector. Below is our complete AGO stock analysis for 2026.

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) a Good Investment?

Claude

Assured Guaranty demonstrates exceptional operational profitability with 33.7% net margin and 72.8% free cash flow conversion, supported by a conservative 0.31x Debt/Equity balance sheet. However, the critically low 1.6% ROE and anemic 0.8% net income growth reveal severely inadequate returns on a large $12.6B asset base, typical of undercapitalized or low-growth insurance operations requiring significant operational improvements.

ChatGPT

Assured Guaranty shows strong core profitability, with a 59.6% operating margin, 45.3% net margin, and very strong interest coverage, indicating a resilient earnings model and solid balance-sheet capacity. Financial health appears sound given moderate leverage and positive free cash flow, but growth quality is mixed because diluted EPS rose far faster than net income, suggesting per-share gains were likely helped materially by capital management rather than broad earnings expansion alone.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Key Strengths (AGO)

Claude
  • + Exceptional net profit margin of 33.7% reflects superior underwriting quality and operational discipline
  • + Outstanding free cash flow generation of $190M with 72.8% FCF margin demonstrates excellent cash conversion efficiency
  • + Conservative capital structure with 0.31x Debt/Equity ratio provides substantial financial flexibility and refinancing safety
ChatGPT
  • + High profitability with strong operating and net margins
  • + Solid financial health supported by moderate debt/equity and 28.8x interest coverage
  • + Positive operating cash flow and free cash flow generation

AGO Stock Risks: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Critically low return on equity of 1.6% signals poor capital allocation efficiency relative to massive $12.6B asset base
  • ! Minimal net income growth of 0.8% YoY indicates stagnant or mature business with limited organic expansion
  • ! Interest coverage ratio of 2.8x leaves insufficient cushion against adverse underwriting results or economic deterioration
ChatGPT
  • ! Net income growth is modest, indicating limited underlying earnings expansion
  • ! EPS growth materially outpaced net income growth, which may reduce growth quality if driven mainly by share count changes
  • ! Insurance and guarantee businesses can face lumpy reserve development and credit-cycle exposure

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Return on Equity trend and component analysis (net income growth vs. capital base changes)
  • * Premium volume growth rates and loss ratio trends in core surety business segments
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability and working capital management to verify FCF quality
ChatGPT
  • * Net income growth relative to diluted EPS growth
  • * Operating cash flow and reserve/loss development trends

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$261.0M
Net Income
$88.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$1.91
Free Cash Flow
$190.0M
Total Assets
$12.6B
Cash Position
$312.0M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The 72.8% free cash flow margin provides substantial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

AGO Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 24.9%
Net Margin 33.7%
ROE 1.6%
ROA 0.7%
FCF Margin 72.8%

AGO vs Finance Sector: How Assured Guaranty Ltd. Compares

How Assured Guaranty Ltd. compares to Finance sector averages

Net Margin
AGO 33.7%
vs
Sector Avg 25.0%
AGO Sector
ROE
AGO 1.6%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
AGO Sector
Current Ratio
AGO 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 1.2x
AGO Sector
Debt/Equity
AGO 0.3x
vs
Sector Avg 2.0x
AGO Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Assured Guaranty Ltd. Stock Overvalued? AGO Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Assured Guaranty Ltd. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Finance sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
1.6%
Sector avg: 12%
Net Profit Margin
33.7%
Sector avg: 25%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.31x
Sector avg: 2x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Balance Sheet: AGO Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Debt/Equity
0.31x
Debt/Assets
56.0%
Interest Coverage
2.83x
Long-term Debt
$1.7B

AGO Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

AGO 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $89.0M, Net Income $402.0M, EPS $4.00. Year 2022: Revenue $93.0M, Net Income $362.0M, EPS $4.19. Year 2023: Revenue $93.0M, Net Income $389.0M, EPS $5.23. Year 2024: Revenue $93.0M, Net Income $124.0M, EPS $1.92. Year 2025: Revenue $53.0M, Net Income $739.0M, EPS $12.30.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s revenue has declined by 40% over the 5-year period, indicating business contraction. The most recent EPS of $12.30 reflects profitable operations.

AGO Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
72.8%
Free cash flow / Revenue

AGO Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Assured Guaranty Ltd. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2024 N/A $157.0M $2.60
Q2 2024 N/A $78.0M $1.41
Q1 2024 N/A $81.0M $1.34
Q3 2023 N/A $11.0M $0.18
Q2 2023 $21.0M $19.0M $0.29
Q1 2023 $26.0M $66.0M $0.98
Q3 2022 $16.0M $11.0M $0.18
Q2 2022 $21.0M $19.0M $0.29

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$190.0M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$75.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Dividends Paid
$19.0M
Returned to shareholders

AGO SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (CIK: 0001273813)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Jun 1, 2026 4 xslF345X06/marketforms-73322.xml View →
May 29, 2026 4 xslF345X06/marketforms-73309.xml View →
May 22, 2026 4 xslF345X06/marketforms-73247.xml View →
May 12, 2026 4 xslF345X06/marketforms-73161.xml View →
May 8, 2026 8-K ago-20260508.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about AGO

What is the AI rating for AGO?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) has a Combined AI Grade of A from Claude (B) and ChatGPT (A) with 74% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are AGO's key strengths?

Claude: Exceptional net profit margin of 33.7% reflects superior underwriting quality and operational discipline. Outstanding free cash flow generation of $190M with 72.8% FCF margin demonstrates excellent cash conversion efficiency. ChatGPT: High profitability with strong operating and net margins. Solid financial health supported by moderate debt/equity and 28.8x interest coverage.

What are the risks of investing in AGO?

Claude: Critically low return on equity of 1.6% signals poor capital allocation efficiency relative to massive $12.6B asset base. Minimal net income growth of 0.8% YoY indicates stagnant or mature business with limited organic expansion. ChatGPT: Net income growth is modest, indicating limited underlying earnings expansion. EPS growth materially outpaced net income growth, which may reduce growth quality if driven mainly by share count changes.

What is AGO's revenue and growth?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported revenue of $261.0M.

Does AGO pay dividends?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. pays dividends, with $19.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find AGO SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (CIK: 0001273813) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is AGO's EPS?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. has a diluted EPS of $1.91.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined grade reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

What is AGO's fundamental grade?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in June 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. has a A grade with 74% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is AGO stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for AGO: ROE of 1.6% (sector avg: 12%), net margin of 33.7% (sector avg: 25%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

What is AGO's AI grade for 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Assured Guaranty Ltd. a combined A grade for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability above sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is AGO's free cash flow?

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s operating cash flow is $190.0M, with capital expenditures of N/A. FCF margin is 72.8%.

How does AGO compare to other Finance stocks?

Vs Finance sector averages: Net margin 33.7% (avg: 25%), ROE 1.6% (avg: 12%), current ratio N/A (avg: 1.2).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: May 9, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-03-31 | Powered by Claude AI