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Aes Corp. (AES) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

AES NYSE Cogeneration Services & Small Power Producers DE CIK: 0000874761
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 19, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
78% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
SELL
75% Conf
SELL
82% Conf

📊 AES Key Takeaways

Revenue: $12.2B
Net Margin: 7.4%
Free Cash Flow: $-1.6B
Current Ratio: 0.77x
Debt/Equity: 0.00x
EPS: $1.26
AI Rating: SELL with 75% confidence
Aes Corp. (AES) receives a SELL rating with 78% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $12.2B, net profit margin of 7.4%, and return on equity (ROE) of 22.4%, Aes Corp. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Services sector. Below is our complete AES stock analysis for 2026.

Is Aes Corp. (AES) a Good Investment?

Claude

AES Corp exhibits concerning financial deterioration with collapsing profitability metrics, negative free cash flow, and severely strained liquidity despite high asset base. The company is burning cash while generating minimal operating income and faces substantial refinancing risk with weak interest coverage.

ChatGPT

AES shows weak underlying earnings quality despite stable revenue and net income, with an extremely thin 0.8% operating margin and just 0.1x interest coverage indicating limited buffer against financing and operating pressure. Cash generation from operations is solid, but heavy capital spending drives materially negative free cash flow, while sub-1.0x liquidity ratios and a small equity base reduce financial flexibility.

Why Buy Aes Corp. Stock? AES Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong operating cash flow of $4.3B demonstrates underlying operational efficiency in collections
  • + Substantial asset base of $51.8B provides infrastructure and revenue generation capacity
  • + Maintained positive net income of $910M despite operational headwinds
ChatGPT
  • + Strong operating cash flow generation of $4.31B
  • + Net income remained positive and slightly grew year over year
  • + Large asset base and essential-power business can support long-duration infrastructure cash flows

AES Stock Risks: Aes Corp. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$1.6B indicates capital expenditures ($5.9B) far exceed operational cash generation, unsustainable long-term
  • ! Critical liquidity crisis with current ratio of 0.77x and quick ratio of 0.69x below safe operating thresholds
  • ! Operating margin collapsed to 0.8% with interest coverage at 0.1x, indicating inability to service debt from operations
  • ! EPS declined 46.6% YoY while dilution continued, suggesting significant shareholder value destruction
  • ! Revenue flat to declining with margin compression across gross, operating, and net metrics
ChatGPT
  • ! Operating profitability is very weak, with only $96M of operating income on $12.23B of revenue
  • ! Free cash flow is deeply negative due to heavy capital expenditure needs
  • ! Liquidity is tight with current and quick ratios below 1.0x, and interest coverage is extremely low

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Free cash flow trajectory and path to positive generation
  • * Operating margin expansion or further compression
  • * Current ratio improvement and working capital management
  • * Debt refinancing activities and interest coverage ratio
ChatGPT
  • * Free cash flow and capital expenditure intensity
  • * Operating margin and interest coverage

Aes Corp. (AES) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$12.2B
Net Income
$910.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$1.26
Free Cash Flow
$-1.6B
Total Assets
$51.8B
Cash Position
$1.4B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The current ratio below 1.0x warrants monitoring of short-term liquidity.

AES Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 18.1%
Operating Margin 0.8%
Net Margin 7.4%
ROE 22.4%
ROA 1.8%
FCF Margin -13.3%

AES vs Services Sector: How Aes Corp. Compares

How Aes Corp. compares to Services sector averages

Net Margin
AES 7.4%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
AES Sector
ROE
AES 22.4%
vs
Sector Avg 16.0%
AES Sector
Current Ratio
AES 0.8x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
AES Sector
Debt/Equity
AES 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
AES Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Aes Corp. Stock Overvalued? AES Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Aes Corp. appears fundamentally strong relative to the Services sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
22.4%
Sector avg: 16%
Net Profit Margin
7.4%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Aes Corp. Balance Sheet: AES Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
0.77x
Quick Ratio
0.69x
Debt/Equity
0.00x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
0.07x
Long-term Debt
N/A

AES Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

AES 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $11.1B, Net Income $303.0M, EPS $0.45. Year 2022: Revenue $12.6B, Net Income $46.0M, EPS $0.07. Year 2023: Revenue $12.7B, Net Income -$409.0M, EPS $-0.61. Year 2024: Revenue $12.7B, Net Income -$546.0M, EPS $-0.82. Year 2025: Revenue $12.7B, Net Income $249.0M, EPS $0.35.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Aes Corp.'s revenue has grown significantly by 14% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $0.35 reflects profitable operations.

AES Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-13.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

AES Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Aes Corp. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $3.3B $504.0M $0.71
Q2 2025 $2.9B -$49.0M $-0.08
Q1 2025 $2.9B $46.0M $0.07
Q3 2024 $3.3B $231.0M $0.32
Q2 2024 $2.9B -$39.0M $-0.06
Q2 2022 $2.7B $28.0M $0.04
Q1 2022 $2.6B $115.0M $0.16
Q3 2021 $2.5B $223.0M $0.32

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Aes Corp. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$4.3B
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$5.9B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$501.0M
Returned to shareholders

AES SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Aes Corp. (CIK: 0000874761)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 16, 2026 8-K aes-20260414.htm View →
Mar 20, 2026 DEF 14A aes-20260320.htm View →
Mar 19, 2026 8-K d80729d8k.htm View →
Mar 2, 2026 10-K aes-20251231.htm View →
Mar 2, 2026 8-K d100078d8k.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about AES

What is the AI rating for AES?

Aes Corp. (AES) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 78% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are AES's key strengths?

Claude: Strong operating cash flow of $4.3B demonstrates underlying operational efficiency in collections. Substantial asset base of $51.8B provides infrastructure and revenue generation capacity. ChatGPT: Strong operating cash flow generation of $4.31B. Net income remained positive and slightly grew year over year.

What are the risks of investing in AES?

Claude: Negative free cash flow of -$1.6B indicates capital expenditures ($5.9B) far exceed operational cash generation, unsustainable long-term. Critical liquidity crisis with current ratio of 0.77x and quick ratio of 0.69x below safe operating thresholds. ChatGPT: Operating profitability is very weak, with only $96M of operating income on $12.23B of revenue. Free cash flow is deeply negative due to heavy capital expenditure needs.

What is AES's revenue and growth?

Aes Corp. reported revenue of $12.2B.

Does AES pay dividends?

Aes Corp. pays dividends, with $501.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find AES SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Aes Corp. (CIK: 0000874761) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is AES's EPS?

Aes Corp. has a diluted EPS of $1.26.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is AES a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Aes Corp. has a SELL rating with 78% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is AES stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for AES: ROE of 22.4% (sector avg: 16%), net margin of 7.4% (sector avg: 10%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy AES stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Aes Corp. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is AES's free cash flow?

Aes Corp.'s operating cash flow is $4.3B, with capital expenditures of $5.9B. FCF margin is -13.3%.

How does AES compare to other Services stocks?

Vs Services sector averages: Net margin 7.4% (avg: 10%), ROE 22.4% (avg: 16%), current ratio 0.77 (avg: 1.5).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 19, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI