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Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

AA NYSE Primary Production of Aluminum DE CIK: 0001675149
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 18, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
📅 Next earnings: Apr 16, 2026 (today) • After-hours ET • EPS est. $1.60 (vs $2.15 prior year) • All earnings →
Combined AI Rating
BUY
73% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
BUY
72% Conf
BUY
74% Conf

📊 AA Key Takeaways

Revenue: $12.8B
Net Margin: 9.0%
Free Cash Flow: $567.0M
Current Ratio: 1.44x
Debt/Equity: 0.40x
EPS: $4.37
AI Rating: BUY with 72% confidence
Alcoa Corp (AA) receives a BUY rating with 73% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $12.8B, net profit margin of 9.0%, and return on equity (ROE) of 18.9%, Alcoa Corp demonstrates strong fundamentals in the Market sector. Below is our complete AA stock analysis for 2026.

Is Alcoa Corp (AA) a Good Investment?

Claude

Alcoa demonstrates solid operational profitability with 9.0% net margins and strong cash generation (1.2B operating cash flow), supported by 7.9% revenue growth. However, the exceptional 1580% EPS growth appears driven by reduced share count rather than operational excellence, warranting cautious optimism about sustainable earnings power.

ChatGPT

Alcoa's latest fundamentals show a meaningful recovery in earnings power, with revenue growth, solid operating profitability, and strong returns on equity and assets. The balance sheet appears manageable with moderate leverage and positive free cash flow, but the business remains exposed to cyclical margin swings and working-capital pressure typical of commodity producers.

Why Buy Alcoa Corp Stock? AA Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong operating margin of 8.3% with 9.0% net margin indicates efficient cost management in cyclical commodity sector
  • + Robust free cash flow generation at 567M (4.4% FCF margin) with conservative capital allocation
  • + Healthy balance sheet with moderate leverage (0.40x Debt/Equity) and 1.6B cash position providing financial flexibility
  • + Revenue growth of 7.9% YoY demonstrates market demand despite commodity price volatility
  • + ROE of 18.9% shows effective capital deployment and returns to shareholders
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue and net income are growing while diluted EPS rebounded sharply, indicating improved operating performance
  • + Balance sheet leverage is moderate with 0.40x debt-to-equity and interest coverage of 6.7x
  • + Free cash flow is positive and liquidity is acceptable with $1.60B in cash and a 1.44x current ratio

AA Stock Risks: Alcoa Corp Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Commodity price exposure creates earnings volatility; aluminum prices subject to macroeconomic cycles and geopolitical tensions
  • ! Elevated interest coverage ratio of 6.7x, while acceptable, indicates interest expense pressure that could deteriorate with higher rates
  • ! Quick ratio of 0.87x below 1.0x suggests potential short-term liquidity constraints if working capital tightens
  • ! Extraordinary EPS growth (1580% YoY) driven by share buybacks rather than operational earnings expansion raises sustainability concerns
  • ! High insider trading activity (23 Form 4 filings in 90 days) warrants monitoring for executive sentiment shifts
ChatGPT
  • ! Profitability is still moderate for a cyclical producer, with an 8.3% operating margin and 4.4% FCF margin
  • ! Quick ratio of 0.87x suggests near-term liquidity is less robust once inventories are excluded
  • ! Earnings quality could be vulnerable to aluminum price cycles, energy costs, and other input-cost volatility

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating margin trend - watch for compression from commodity price weakness or cost inflation
  • * Free cash flow sustainability - critical to validate capital generation capability versus debt obligations
  • * Debt/Equity ratio - monitor for any deterioration if commodity downcycle impacts cash generation
  • * Capital expenditure levels - track maintenance capex versus growth investments in capacity
  • * Working capital efficiency - focus on inventory and receivables management in cyclical commodity downturn
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and free cash flow conversion
  • * Net debt, liquidity, and interest coverage

Alcoa Corp (AA) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$12.8B
Net Income
$1.2B
EPS (Diluted)
$4.37
Free Cash Flow
$567.0M
Total Assets
$16.1B
Cash Position
$1.6B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

The relatively thin 4.4% FCF margin may limit capital allocation flexibility.

AA Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 8.3%
Net Margin 9.0%
ROE 18.9%
ROA 7.2%
FCF Margin 4.4%

AA vs Market Sector: How Alcoa Corp Compares

How Alcoa Corp compares to Market sector averages

Net Margin
AA 9.0%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
AA Sector
ROE
AA 18.9%
vs
Sector Avg 15.0%
AA Sector
Current Ratio
AA 1.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.8x
AA Sector
Debt/Equity
AA 0.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
AA Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Alcoa Corp Stock Overvalued? AA Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Alcoa Corp has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Market sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
18.9%
Sector avg: 15%
Net Profit Margin
9.0%
Sector avg: 12%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.40x
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Alcoa Corp Balance Sheet: AA Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.44x
Quick Ratio
0.87x
Debt/Equity
0.40x
Debt/Assets
61.6%
Interest Coverage
6.73x
Long-term Debt
$2.4B

AA Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

AA 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $12.2B, Net Income -$1.1B, EPS $-6.07. Year 2022: Revenue $12.5B, Net Income -$170.0M, EPS $-0.91. Year 2023: Revenue $12.5B, Net Income $429.0M, EPS $2.26. Year 2024: Revenue $12.5B, Net Income -$123.0M, EPS $-0.68. Year 2025: Revenue $12.8B, Net Income -$651.0M, EPS $-3.65.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Alcoa Corp's revenue has shown modest growth of 6% over the 5-year period. The most recent EPS of $-3.65 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

AA Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
4.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

AA Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Alcoa Corp including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $2.9B $90.0M $0.38
Q2 2025 $2.9B $20.0M $0.11
Q1 2025 $2.6B -$252.0M $-1.41
Q3 2024 $2.6B $90.0M $0.38
Q2 2024 $2.7B $20.0M $0.11
Q1 2024 $2.6B -$231.0M $-1.30
Q3 2023 $2.6B -$168.0M $-0.94
Q2 2023 $2.7B -$102.0M $-0.57

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Alcoa Corp Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$1.2B
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$618.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$104.0M
Returned to shareholders

AA SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Alcoa Corp (CIK: 0001675149)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 14, 2026 8-K d106551d8k.htm View →
Mar 19, 2026 DEF 14A aa-20260319.htm View →
Feb 26, 2026 10-K aa-20251231.htm View →
Feb 25, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Feb 25, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about AA

What is the AI rating for AA?

Alcoa Corp (AA) has a Combined AI Rating of BUY from Claude (BUY) and ChatGPT (BUY) with 73% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are AA's key strengths?

Claude: Strong operating margin of 8.3% with 9.0% net margin indicates efficient cost management in cyclical commodity sector. Robust free cash flow generation at 567M (4.4% FCF margin) with conservative capital allocation. ChatGPT: Revenue and net income are growing while diluted EPS rebounded sharply, indicating improved operating performance. Balance sheet leverage is moderate with 0.40x debt-to-equity and interest coverage of 6.7x.

What are the risks of investing in AA?

Claude: Commodity price exposure creates earnings volatility; aluminum prices subject to macroeconomic cycles and geopolitical tensions. Elevated interest coverage ratio of 6.7x, while acceptable, indicates interest expense pressure that could deteriorate with higher rates. ChatGPT: Profitability is still moderate for a cyclical producer, with an 8.3% operating margin and 4.4% FCF margin. Quick ratio of 0.87x suggests near-term liquidity is less robust once inventories are excluded.

What is AA's revenue and growth?

Alcoa Corp reported revenue of $12.8B.

Does AA pay dividends?

Alcoa Corp pays dividends, with $104.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find AA SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Alcoa Corp (CIK: 0001675149) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is AA's EPS?

Alcoa Corp has a diluted EPS of $4.37.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is AA a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Alcoa Corp has a BUY rating with 73% confidence. The AI analysis suggests favorable fundamentals based on SEC filings. This is not investment advice.

Is AA stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for AA: ROE of 18.9% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 9.0% (sector avg: 12%). Higher ROE suggests strong returns relative to peers.

Should I buy AA stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Alcoa Corp a combined BUY rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is AA's free cash flow?

Alcoa Corp's operating cash flow is $1.2B, with capital expenditures of $618.0M. FCF margin is 4.4%.

How does AA compare to other Market stocks?

Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 9.0% (avg: 12%), ROE 18.9% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.44 (avg: 1.8).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 18, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI