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Mosaic Co (MOS) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

MOS NYSE Agricultural Chemicals CIK: 0001285785
Updated This Month • Analysis: Apr 2, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
HOLD
64% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
HOLD
62% Conf
HOLD
65% Conf

📊 MOS Key Takeaways

Revenue: $12.1B
Net Margin: 4.5%
Free Cash Flow: $-534.6M
Current Ratio: 1.32x
Debt/Equity: 0.35x
EPS: $1.70
AI Rating: HOLD with 62% confidence
Mosaic Co (MOS) receives a HOLD rating with 64% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $12.1B, net profit margin of 4.5%, and return on equity (ROE) of 4.5%, Mosaic Co demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Materials sector. Below is our complete MOS stock analysis for 2026.

Is Mosaic Co (MOS) a Good Investment?

Claude

Mosaic demonstrates stable revenue and moderate profitability with a 4.5% net margin, but faces concerning cash flow dynamics where negative free cash flow of -$534.6M indicates capital expenditures exceed operating cash generation. The company maintains reasonable leverage (0.35x debt/equity) and adequate interest coverage (3.4x), though low quick ratio (0.47x) and declining net income (-6.0% YoY) suggest operational pressures despite flat revenue growth.

ChatGPT

Mosaic shows cyclical softness: flat revenue, mid‑single‑digit operating margin, and negative free cash flow driven by elevated capex, alongside tight liquidity (quick ratio 0.47x). Moderate leverage (0.35x D/E) and adequate interest coverage (3.4x) provide balance sheet flexibility, but sustained cash generation depends on margin recovery and capex normalization.

Why Buy Mosaic Co Stock? MOS Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Conservative leverage with 0.35x debt/equity ratio providing financial flexibility
  • + Strong operating cash flow of $824.8M demonstrating underlying business cash generation
  • + Adequate interest coverage of 3.4x indicating manageable debt service obligations
ChatGPT
  • + Moderate leverage with adequate interest coverage
  • + Consistent operating cash generation despite cycle
  • + Large asset base and stable revenue year over year

MOS Stock Risks: Mosaic Co Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$534.6M with capital expenditures ($1.4B) substantially exceeding operating cash flow, limiting reinvestment capacity and dividend/debt paydown ability
  • ! Declining net income (-6.0% YoY) despite flat revenue growth signals margin compression and operational headwinds
  • ! Weak liquidity position with quick ratio of only 0.47x and modest cash reserves of $276.6M relative to $4.3B long-term debt
ChatGPT
  • ! Negative free cash flow and low cash balance pressure liquidity
  • ! Commodity price exposure may further compress margins
  • ! Rising interest or costs could weaken 3.4x coverage

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Free cash flow trend and capital expenditure efficiency to determine if negative FCF improves
  • * Gross and operating margins to assess whether profitability contraction continues or stabilizes
  • * Operating cash flow sustainability and debt service coverage under commodity price volatility
ChatGPT
  • * Free cash flow (OCF minus capex)
  • * Gross margin trend

Mosaic Co (MOS) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$12.1B
Net Income
$540.7M
EPS (Diluted)
$1.70
Free Cash Flow
$-534.6M
Total Assets
$24.5B
Cash Position
$276.6M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Mosaic Co presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

MOS Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 15.8%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Net Margin 4.5%
ROE 4.5%
ROA 2.2%
FCF Margin -4.4%

MOS vs Materials Sector: How Mosaic Co Compares

How Mosaic Co compares to Materials sector averages

Net Margin
MOS 4.5%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
MOS Sector
ROE
MOS 4.5%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
MOS Sector
Current Ratio
MOS 1.3x
vs
Sector Avg 1.6x
MOS Sector
Debt/Equity
MOS 0.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
MOS Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Mosaic Co Stock Overvalued? MOS Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Mosaic Co has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Materials sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
4.5%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
4.5%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.35x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Mosaic Co Balance Sheet: MOS Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.32x
Quick Ratio
0.47x
Debt/Equity
0.35x
Debt/Assets
0.0%
Interest Coverage
3.40x
Long-term Debt
$4.3B

MOS Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

MOS 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $12.4B, Net Income -$1.1B, EPS $-2.78. Year 2022: Revenue $19.1B, Net Income $666.1M, EPS $1.75. Year 2023: Revenue $19.1B, Net Income $1.6B, EPS $4.27. Year 2024: Revenue $19.1B, Net Income $3.6B, EPS $10.06. Year 2025: Revenue $13.7B, Net Income $1.2B, EPS $3.50.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Mosaic Co's revenue has grown significantly by 11% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $3.50 reflects profitable operations.

MOS Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-4.4%
Free cash flow / Revenue

MOS Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Mosaic Co including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $2.8B $5.9M $0.02
Q2 2025 $2.8B -$116.3M $-0.36
Q1 2025 $2.6B $45.2M $0.14
Q3 2024 $2.8B -$4.2M $-0.01
Q2 2024 $2.8B -$116.3M $-0.36
Q1 2024 $2.7B $45.2M $0.14
Q3 2023 $3.5B -$4.2M $-0.01
Q2 2023 $3.4B $369.0M $1.11

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Mosaic Co Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$824.8M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$1.4B
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$280.4M
Returned to shareholders

MOS SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Mosaic Co (CIK: 0001285785)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 16, 2026 DEF 14A mos-20260415.htm View →
Apr 8, 2026 8-K mos-20260408.htm View →
Mar 17, 2026 10-K/A mos-20251231.htm View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773259762.xml View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773259756.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about MOS

What is the AI rating for MOS?

Mosaic Co (MOS) has a Combined AI Rating of HOLD from Claude (HOLD) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 64% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are MOS's key strengths?

Claude: Conservative leverage with 0.35x debt/equity ratio providing financial flexibility. Strong operating cash flow of $824.8M demonstrating underlying business cash generation. ChatGPT: Moderate leverage with adequate interest coverage. Consistent operating cash generation despite cycle.

What are the risks of investing in MOS?

Claude: Negative free cash flow of -$534.6M with capital expenditures ($1.4B) substantially exceeding operating cash flow, limiting reinvestment capacity and dividend/debt paydown ability. Declining net income (-6.0% YoY) despite flat revenue growth signals margin compression and operational headwinds. ChatGPT: Negative free cash flow and low cash balance pressure liquidity. Commodity price exposure may further compress margins.

What is MOS's revenue and growth?

Mosaic Co reported revenue of $12.1B.

Does MOS pay dividends?

Mosaic Co pays dividends, with $280.4M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find MOS SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Mosaic Co (CIK: 0001285785) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is MOS's EPS?

Mosaic Co has a diluted EPS of $1.70.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is MOS a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Mosaic Co has a HOLD rating with 64% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is MOS stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for MOS: ROE of 4.5% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of 4.5% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy MOS stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Mosaic Co a combined HOLD rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is MOS's free cash flow?

Mosaic Co's operating cash flow is $824.8M, with capital expenditures of $1.4B. FCF margin is -4.4%.

How does MOS compare to other Materials stocks?

Vs Materials sector averages: Net margin 4.5% (avg: 10%), ROE 4.5% (avg: 14%), current ratio 1.32 (avg: 1.6).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Apr 2, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI