📊 HOG Key Takeaways
Is Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (HOG) a Good Investment?
Harley-Davidson shows alarming profitability deterioration with net income falling 26.1% YoY despite 24.1% revenue growth, indicating severe margin compression and operational challenges. While liquidity and cash generation remain strong ($3.1B cash, $415.2M FCF), the 7.6% net margin, 10.8% ROE, and weakening earnings per share suggest cost control problems outweighing growth benefits.
Strong top-line growth and a very solid liquidity profile underpin healthy free cash flow generation and manageable leverage. However, earnings quality is mixed as net income and EPS declined despite revenue expansion, pointing to margin pressure or non-operating headwinds. Until profitability stabilizes and margins recover, the fundamental outlook appears balanced.
Why Buy Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Stock? HOG Key Strengths
- Strong revenue growth of 24.1% YoY demonstrates demand resilience
- Excellent liquidity position with $3.1B cash and 2.1x current ratio
- Robust free cash flow generation of $415.2M with 9.3% FCF margin
- Exceptional interest coverage of 50.3x and manageable 0.79x debt-to-equity ratio
- 24.1% YoY revenue growth
- Robust liquidity and cash (current 2.10x, quick 1.83x; $3.09B cash)
- Healthy FCF (9.3% margin) with low leverage and high interest coverage (50.3x)
HOG Stock Risks: Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Investment Risks
- Severe profitability deterioration: net income down 26.1% YoY despite revenue growth indicates fundamental operational issues
- Weak profit margins: 7.6% net margin and 8.6% operating margin leave little room for further compression
- Poor capital efficiency: ROE of 10.8% and ROA of 4.2% well below acceptable thresholds for shareholder returns
- EPS declined 19.2% YoY, signaling shareholder value destruction despite top-line growth
- Unidentified cause of margin collapse increases uncertainty around forward trajectory
- Margin compression with net income down 26.1% YoY
- Cost inflation/product mix pressures weighing on operating margin
- Non-operating/financing impacts potentially diluting earnings
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating margin trend and cost structure stabilization
- Gross margin sustainability and COGS inflation pressure
- Return on equity recovery pathway
- Inventory turnover and working capital efficiency
- Net income growth relative to revenue growth in subsequent quarters
- Operating margin trend
- Free cash flow margin (FCF/Revenue)
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (HOG) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Strong liquidity with a 2.10x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.
HOG Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis
HOG vs Market Sector: How Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Compares
How Harley-Davidson, Inc.. compares to Market sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Stock Overvalued? HOG Valuation Analysis 2026
Based on fundamental analysis, Harley-Davidson, Inc.. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Market sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Balance Sheet: HOG Debt, Cash & Liquidity
HOG Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: Harley-Davidson, Inc..'s revenue has remained relatively flat over the 5-year period, with a 1% decline. The most recent EPS of $4.87 reflects profitable operations.
HOG Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance
HOG Quarterly Earnings & Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $881.2M | $119.0M | $0.91 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.0B | $107.6M | $0.88 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | $133.1M | $1.07 |
| Q3 2024 | $881.2M | $119.0M | $0.91 |
| Q2 2024 | $1.2B | $178.0M | $1.22 |
| Q1 2024 | $1.5B | $234.9M | $1.72 |
| Q3 2023 | $1.3B | $198.6M | $1.38 |
| Q2 2023 | $1.2B | $178.0M | $1.22 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation
HOG SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (CIK: 0000793952)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about HOG
What is the AI rating for HOG?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (HOG) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (HOLD) with 66% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are HOG's key strengths?
Claude: Strong revenue growth of 24.1% YoY demonstrates demand resilience. Excellent liquidity position with $3.1B cash and 2.1x current ratio. ChatGPT: 24.1% YoY revenue growth. Robust liquidity and cash (current 2.10x, quick 1.83x; $3.09B cash).
What are the risks of investing in HOG?
Claude: Severe profitability deterioration: net income down 26.1% YoY despite revenue growth indicates fundamental operational issues. Weak profit margins: 7.6% net margin and 8.6% operating margin leave little room for further compression. ChatGPT: Margin compression with net income down 26.1% YoY. Cost inflation/product mix pressures weighing on operating margin.
What is HOG's revenue and growth?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. reported revenue of $4.5B.
Does HOG pay dividends?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. pays dividends, with $86.4M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.
Where can I find HOG SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for Harley-Davidson, Inc.. (CIK: 0000793952) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is HOG's EPS?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.. has a diluted EPS of $2.78.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
Is HOG a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc.. has a SELL rating with 66% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.
Is HOG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for HOG: ROE of 10.8% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of 7.6% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
Should I buy HOG stock in 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives Harley-Davidson, Inc.. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is HOG's free cash flow?
Harley-Davidson, Inc..'s operating cash flow is $568.9M, with capital expenditures of $153.7M. FCF margin is 9.3%.
How does HOG compare to other Market stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin 7.6% (avg: 12%), ROE 10.8% (avg: 15%), current ratio 2.10 (avg: 1.8).