📊 FOSL Key Takeaways
Is Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) a Good Investment?
Fossil Group faces fundamental business deterioration with declining revenue (-12.3% YoY), negative operating cash flow (-$21.8M), and unsustainable free cash flow (-$22.7M), while carrying a heavy debt burden (1.95x Debt/Equity) with weak interest coverage (2.4x). The combination of revenue contraction, cash burn, and high leverage creates significant financial distress risk with limited margin for error.
Fossil Group’s fundamentals are weak: revenue is contracting, operating performance remains loss-making, and free cash flow is negative. While gross margin is still relatively strong and near-term liquidity is not yet distressed, the combination of thin equity, elevated leverage, and negative interest coverage points to a fragile financial profile. Unless the company can stabilize sales and restore positive operating cash flow, the balance sheet appears vulnerable.
Fossil Group, Inc. Key Strengths (FOSL)
- Gross margin of 59.9% demonstrates reasonable product cost structure and pricing power at unit level
- Current ratio of 1.72x and quick ratio of 1.10x indicate adequate short-term liquidity position
- Cash reserves of $81.4M provide near-term operational buffer against business challenges
- Gross margin of 56.1% indicates the brand portfolio still supports solid product-level profitability
- Current ratio of 1.55x and quick ratio of 1.05x suggest acceptable near-term liquidity
- Low capital expenditure requirements limit cash demands from reinvestment
FOSL Stock Risks: Fossil Group, Inc. Investment Risks
- Negative operating cash flow of -$21.8M indicates core business cannot fund operations, raising sustainability concerns
- Severe revenue decline of -12.3% YoY suggests structural market challenges and loss of competitive position in mature watch industry
- High leverage (1.95x Debt/Equity) combined with weak interest coverage (2.4x) and minimal profitability creates vulnerability to further deterioration or refinancing risks
- Minimal capital expenditure ($949K) suggests company is in cost-cutting/survival mode rather than investing for growth
- Revenue declined 12.3% YoY, indicating continued top-line erosion
- Negative operating margin, net margin, and free cash flow show the business is not currently self-funding
- Debt/equity of 1.73x, negative interest coverage, and very weak ROE reflect significant balance-sheet stress
Key Metrics to Watch
- Operating cash flow trend - critical indicator of business viability; must return to positive
- Revenue stabilization - need evidence of halting the -12.3% YoY decline
- Debt service capacity - monitor if improving profitability can support 1.95x leverage and 2.4x interest coverage
- Revenue trend and gross margin stability
- Operating cash flow and interest coverage
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios
💡 AI Analyst Insight
Fossil Group, Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.
FOSL Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis
FOSL vs Market Sector: How Fossil Group, Inc. Compares
How Fossil Group, Inc. compares to Market sector averages
Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.
Is Fossil Group, Inc. Stock Overvalued? FOSL Valuation Analysis 2026
Based on fundamental analysis, Fossil Group, Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Market sector in 2026.
Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.
Fossil Group, Inc. Balance Sheet: FOSL Debt, Cash & Liquidity
FOSL Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend
5-Year Trend Summary: Fossil Group, Inc.'s revenue has declined by 36% over the 5-year period, indicating business contraction. The most recent EPS of $-3.00 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.
FOSL Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance
FOSL Quarterly Earnings & Performance
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $224.8M | -$677.0K | $-0.01 |
| Q3 2025 | $270.2M | -$31.9M | $-0.60 |
| Q2 2025 | $220.4M | -$2.1M | $-0.04 |
| Q1 2025 | $233.3M | -$17.9M | $-0.33 |
| Q3 2024 | $287.8M | -$31.9M | $-0.60 |
| Q2 2024 | $260.0M | -$26.3M | $-0.51 |
| Q1 2024 | $254.9M | -$24.3M | $-0.46 |
| Q3 2023 | $344.1M | $6.3M | $0.11 |
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.
Fossil Group, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation
FOSL SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis
Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Fossil Group, Inc. (CIK: 0000883569)
📋 Recent SEC Filings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions about FOSL
What is the AI rating for FOSL?
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) has a Combined AI Grade of C from Claude (C) and ChatGPT (D) with 89% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
What are FOSL's key strengths?
Claude: Gross margin of 59.9% demonstrates reasonable product cost structure and pricing power at unit level. Current ratio of 1.72x and quick ratio of 1.10x indicate adequate short-term liquidity position. ChatGPT: Gross margin of 56.1% indicates the brand portfolio still supports solid product-level profitability. Current ratio of 1.55x and quick ratio of 1.05x suggest acceptable near-term liquidity.
What are the risks of investing in FOSL?
Claude: Negative operating cash flow of -$21.8M indicates core business cannot fund operations, raising sustainability concerns. Severe revenue decline of -12.3% YoY suggests structural market challenges and loss of competitive position in mature watch industry. ChatGPT: Revenue declined 12.3% YoY, indicating continued top-line erosion. Negative operating margin, net margin, and free cash flow show the business is not currently self-funding.
What is FOSL's revenue and growth?
Fossil Group, Inc. reported revenue of $224.8M.
Does FOSL pay dividends?
Fossil Group, Inc. does not currently pay dividends.
Where can I find FOSL SEC filings?
Official SEC filings for Fossil Group, Inc. (CIK: 0000883569) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.
What is FOSL's EPS?
Fossil Group, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-0.01.
How is the AI analysis conducted?
Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined grade reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.
What is FOSL's fundamental grade?
Based on our AI fundamental analysis in June 2026, Fossil Group, Inc. has a C grade with 89% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above for full context. This is not investment advice.
Is FOSL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation metrics for FOSL: ROE of -0.8% (sector avg: 15%), net margin of -0.4% (sector avg: 12%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.
What is FOSL's AI grade for 2026?
Our dual AI analysis gives Fossil Group, Inc. a combined C grade for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.
What is FOSL's free cash flow?
Fossil Group, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $-21.8M, with capital expenditures of $949.0K. FCF margin is -10.1%.
How does FOSL compare to other Market stocks?
Vs Default sector averages: Net margin -0.4% (avg: 12%), ROE -0.8% (avg: 15%), current ratio 1.72 (avg: 1.8).
Is Fossil Group, Inc. carrying too much debt?
FOSL has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.95x, which is above the Market sector average of 0.7x. However, the current ratio of 1.72 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.