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Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. (CVLG) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

CVLG NYSE Trucking (No Local) NV CIK: 0000928658
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 23, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
📅 Next earnings: Apr 23, 2026 (in 7 days) • After-hours ET • EPS est. $0.35 (vs $0.32 prior year) • All earnings →
Combined AI Rating
SELL
84% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
SELL
82% Conf
SELL
87% Conf

📊 CVLG Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.2B
Net Margin: 0.6%
Free Cash Flow: $-33.9M
Current Ratio: 1.11x
Debt/Equity: 0.58x
EPS: $0.27
AI Rating: SELL with 82% confidence
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. (CVLG) receives a SELL rating with 84% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $1.2B, net profit margin of 0.6%, and return on equity (ROE) of 1.8%, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Automotive sector. Below is our complete CVLG stock analysis for 2026.

Is Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. (CVLG) a Good Investment?

Claude

Covenant Logistics faces severe operational challenges with a 79.8% year-over-year decline in net income despite modest 2.9% revenue growth, indicating deteriorating unit economics and margin compression in a capital-intensive trucking business. The company is consuming cash with negative free cash flow of -$33.9M while maintaining only $4.9M in liquidity and facing $234M in long-term debt, creating refinancing risk. Critical interest coverage of just 0.2x suggests the company struggles to service debt from operating earnings, presenting significant financial distress risk.

ChatGPT

Covenant Logistics Group’s fundamentals show a sharp deterioration in earnings quality: revenue grew modestly, but net income fell nearly 80% and operating margin compressed to just 0.3%, indicating very weak conversion of sales into profit. Financial health is mixed, with decent operating cash generation and manageable debt/equity, but negative free cash flow, minimal cash on hand, and extremely weak interest coverage materially increase downside risk if operating conditions stay soft.

Why Buy Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Stock? CVLG Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Revenue base of $1.2B provides scale in the trucking sector
  • + Positive operating cash flow of $113.6M demonstrates underlying business can generate cash
  • + Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.58x is moderate relative to industry leverage levels
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue remained positive with 2.9% year-over-year growth despite a weak profit environment
  • + Operating cash flow of $113.65M shows the business still converts working activity into cash
  • + Debt/equity of 0.58x is not excessive relative to equity and provides some balance-sheet support

CVLG Stock Risks: Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Catastrophic 79.8% decline in net income signals margin compression and operational deterioration
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$33.9M is unsustainable; capital expenditures exceed operating cash flow
  • ! Interest coverage ratio of 0.2x indicates severe debt servicing stress and high default risk
  • ! Minimal cash position of $4.9M provides minimal liquidity buffer against operational disruptions
  • ! Operating margin compression to just 0.3% and net margin of 0.6% leave no room for adverse conditions
  • ! Sustained profitability decline suggests structural headwinds in trucking operations rather than cyclical weakness
ChatGPT
  • ! Net income and diluted EPS collapsed by about 80% year over year, signaling severe profit pressure
  • ! Interest coverage of 0.2x indicates very weak ability to cover financing costs from operations
  • ! Free cash flow was negative due to heavy capital expenditures, while cash on hand was only $4.95M

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating margin trajectory and fleet utilization rates
  • * Free cash flow sustainability and ability to fund capital expenditures
  • * Debt refinancing activities and interest coverage improvement
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and interest coverage for signs of earnings recovery
  • * Free cash flow and capital expenditure intensity relative to operating cash flow

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. (CVLG) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$1.2B
Net Income
$7.2M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.27
Free Cash Flow
$-33.9M
Total Assets
$1.0B
Cash Position
$4.9M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

CVLG Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 0.3%
Net Margin 0.6%
ROE 1.8%
ROA 0.7%
FCF Margin -2.9%

CVLG vs Automotive Sector: How Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Compares

How Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. compares to Automotive sector averages

Net Margin
CVLG 0.6%
vs
Sector Avg 6.0%
CVLG Sector
ROE
CVLG 1.8%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
CVLG Sector
Current Ratio
CVLG 1.1x
vs
Sector Avg 1.2x
CVLG Sector
Debt/Equity
CVLG 0.6x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
CVLG Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Stock Overvalued? CVLG Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Automotive sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
1.8%
Sector avg: 12%
Net Profit Margin
0.6%
Sector avg: 6%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.58x
Sector avg: 1x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Balance Sheet: CVLG Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.11x
Quick Ratio
1.11x
Debt/Equity
0.58x
Debt/Assets
61.4%
Interest Coverage
0.24x
Long-term Debt
$234.0M

CVLG Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

CVLG 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $1.0B, Net Income -$42.7M, EPS $-2.46. Year 2022: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $60.7M, EPS $3.57. Year 2023: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $60.7M, EPS $3.57. Year 2024: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $108.7M, EPS $3.50. Year 2025: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income $55.2M, EPS $2.00.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Covenant Logistics Group, Inc..'s revenue has grown significantly by 11% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $2.00 reflects profitable operations.

CVLG Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-2.9%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CVLG Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $287.9M $4.0M $0.35
Q2 2025 $287.5M $4.0M $0.36
Q1 2025 $269.4M $4.0M $0.14
Q3 2024 $287.9M $4.0M $0.94
Q2 2024 $274.0M $4.0M $0.88
Q1 2024 $266.9M $4.0M $0.29
Q3 2023 $288.7M $12.3M $0.99
Q2 2023 $274.0M $12.3M $0.91

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$113.6M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$36.6M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$147.6M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$7.2M
Returned to shareholders

CVLG SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. (CIK: 0000928658)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 10, 2026 DEF 14A cvti20260401_def14a.htm View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Feb 27, 2026 4 xslF345X05/form4.xml View →
Feb 27, 2026 10-K cvti20251231_10k.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CVLG

What is the AI rating for CVLG?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. (CVLG) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 84% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CVLG's key strengths?

Claude: Revenue base of $1.2B provides scale in the trucking sector. Positive operating cash flow of $113.6M demonstrates underlying business can generate cash. ChatGPT: Revenue remained positive with 2.9% year-over-year growth despite a weak profit environment. Operating cash flow of $113.65M shows the business still converts working activity into cash.

What are the risks of investing in CVLG?

Claude: Catastrophic 79.8% decline in net income signals margin compression and operational deterioration. Negative free cash flow of -$33.9M is unsustainable; capital expenditures exceed operating cash flow. ChatGPT: Net income and diluted EPS collapsed by about 80% year over year, signaling severe profit pressure. Interest coverage of 0.2x indicates very weak ability to cover financing costs from operations.

What is CVLG's revenue and growth?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. reported revenue of $1.2B.

Does CVLG pay dividends?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. pays dividends, with $7.2M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find CVLG SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. (CIK: 0000928658) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CVLG's EPS?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. has a diluted EPS of $0.27.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is CVLG a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. has a SELL rating with 84% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is CVLG stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for CVLG: ROE of 1.8% (sector avg: 12%), net margin of 0.6% (sector avg: 6%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy CVLG stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is CVLG's free cash flow?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc..'s operating cash flow is $113.6M, with capital expenditures of $147.6M. FCF margin is -2.9%.

How does CVLG compare to other Automotive stocks?

Vs Automotive sector averages: Net margin 0.6% (avg: 6%), ROE 1.8% (avg: 12%), current ratio 1.11 (avg: 1.2).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 23, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI