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Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

CLW NYSE Paperboard Mills DE CIK: 0001441236
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 22, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
88% Confidence
AGREEMENT
STRONG SELL
92% Conf
SELL
83% Conf

📊 CLW Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.6B
Net Margin: -1.2%
Free Cash Flow: $-76.5M
Current Ratio: 2.43x
Debt/Equity: 0.42x
EPS: $-1.15
AI Rating: STRONG SELL with 92% confidence
Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) receives a SELL rating with 88% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $1.6B, net profit margin of -1.2%, and return on equity (ROE) of -2.3%, Clearwater Paper Corp demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Materials sector. Below is our complete CLW stock analysis for 2026.

Is Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) a Good Investment?

Claude

Clearwater Paper faces severe operational distress with negative profitability across all margins, burning cash despite flat revenue. The company is unable to cover interest expenses with operating income and generating negative free cash flow, indicating fundamental business deterioration in the paperboard mills sector.

ChatGPT

Clearwater Paper’s fundamentals are weak: margins are near breakeven at the gross level, operating and net income are negative, and free cash flow is meaningfully negative despite stable revenue. The balance sheet is not distressed, with adequate liquidity and moderate leverage, but the business currently lacks earnings power and cash generation quality, which limits fundamental attractiveness until profitability materially improves.

Why Buy Clearwater Paper Corp Stock? CLW Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Adequate liquidity with 2.43x current ratio providing near-term solvency buffer
  • + Modest leverage at 0.42x debt-to-equity ratio relative to total assets
  • + Positive operating cash flow of $12.3M provides minimal cushion despite operational losses
ChatGPT
  • + Liquidity is solid, with a 2.43x current ratio and 1.13x quick ratio
  • + Leverage appears manageable, with debt/equity of 0.42x and substantial equity relative to liabilities
  • + Revenue has remained stable year over year, indicating demand has not collapsed

CLW Stock Risks: Clearwater Paper Corp Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Severe profitability collapse with -1.2% net margin and -2.7% operating margin indicating structural business problems
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$76.5M annually with capital expenditures exceeding operating cash generation, unsustainable burn rate
  • ! Negative interest coverage of -2.4x demonstrates inability to service debt from operations, increasing default risk
  • ! Gross margin compressed to 0.9% suggests commoditized product with minimal pricing power or severe cost pressures
  • ! Deteriorating returns with -2.3% ROE and -1.2% ROA, destroying shareholder value
ChatGPT
  • ! Gross margin of just 0.9% leaves almost no buffer against input cost or pricing pressure
  • ! Operating losses, negative net income, and -2.4x interest coverage indicate weak earnings support for the capital structure
  • ! Free cash flow is negative due to low operating cash flow and elevated capital spending, reducing financial flexibility

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating margin recovery trajectory and ability to return to profitability
  • * Free cash flow trends and whether negative FCF stabilizes or worsens
  • * Interest coverage ratio improvement and debt service sustainability
  • * Gross margin expansion as indicator of cost management or pricing power recovery
  • * Cash balance depletion rate given current burn and debt obligations
ChatGPT
  • * Gross and operating margin recovery
  • * Operating cash flow and free cash flow trend

Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$1.6B
Net Income
$-18.6M
EPS (Diluted)
$-1.15
Free Cash Flow
$-76.5M
Total Assets
$1.6B
Cash Position
$30.7M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 2.43x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

CLW Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 0.9%
Operating Margin -2.7%
Net Margin -1.2%
ROE -2.3%
ROA -1.2%
FCF Margin -4.9%

CLW vs Materials Sector: How Clearwater Paper Corp Compares

How Clearwater Paper Corp compares to Materials sector averages

Net Margin
CLW -1.2%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
CLW Sector
ROE
CLW -2.3%
vs
Sector Avg 14.0%
CLW Sector
Current Ratio
CLW 2.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.6x
CLW Sector
Debt/Equity
CLW 0.4x
vs
Sector Avg 0.6x
CLW Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Clearwater Paper Corp Stock Overvalued? CLW Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Clearwater Paper Corp shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Materials sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-2.3%
Sector avg: 14%
Net Profit Margin
-1.2%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
0.42x
Sector avg: 0.6x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Clearwater Paper Corp Balance Sheet: CLW Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
2.43x
Quick Ratio
1.13x
Debt/Equity
0.42x
Debt/Assets
48.0%
Interest Coverage
-2.37x
Long-term Debt
$345.5M

CLW Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

CLW 5-year financial data: Year 2024: Revenue $1.4B, Net Income $46.0M, EPS $2.68. Year 2025: Revenue $1.6B, Net Income $107.7M, EPS $6.30.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Clearwater Paper Corp's revenue has grown significantly by 12% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $6.30 reflects profitable operations.

CLW Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-4.9%
Free cash flow / Revenue

CLW Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Clearwater Paper Corp including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $393.3M $2.7M $-0.17
Q2 2025 $344.4M $2.7M $0.17
Q1 2025 $258.8M -$6.3M $-0.38
Q3 2024 $278.9M -$2.8M $-0.17
Q2 2024 $524.6M -$8.6M $-0.52
Q1 2024 $496.2M $17.2M $1.02
Q3 2023 $519.9M $14.7M $1.21
Q2 2023 $524.6M $14.7M $0.86

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Clearwater Paper Corp Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$12.3M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$17.2M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$88.8M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

CLW SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Clearwater Paper Corp (CIK: 0001441236)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775251231.xml View →
Mar 27, 2026 DEF 14A clw-20260327.htm View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773781654.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773781551.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/wk-form4_1773781509.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about CLW

What is the AI rating for CLW?

Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (STRONG SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 88% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are CLW's key strengths?

Claude: Adequate liquidity with 2.43x current ratio providing near-term solvency buffer. Modest leverage at 0.42x debt-to-equity ratio relative to total assets. ChatGPT: Liquidity is solid, with a 2.43x current ratio and 1.13x quick ratio. Leverage appears manageable, with debt/equity of 0.42x and substantial equity relative to liabilities.

What are the risks of investing in CLW?

Claude: Severe profitability collapse with -1.2% net margin and -2.7% operating margin indicating structural business problems. Negative free cash flow of -$76.5M annually with capital expenditures exceeding operating cash generation, unsustainable burn rate. ChatGPT: Gross margin of just 0.9% leaves almost no buffer against input cost or pricing pressure. Operating losses, negative net income, and -2.4x interest coverage indicate weak earnings support for the capital structure.

What is CLW's revenue and growth?

Clearwater Paper Corp reported revenue of $1.6B.

Does CLW pay dividends?

Clearwater Paper Corp does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find CLW SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Clearwater Paper Corp (CIK: 0001441236) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is CLW's EPS?

Clearwater Paper Corp has a diluted EPS of $-1.15.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is CLW a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Clearwater Paper Corp has a SELL rating with 88% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is CLW stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for CLW: ROE of -2.3% (sector avg: 14%), net margin of -1.2% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy CLW stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Clearwater Paper Corp a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is CLW's free cash flow?

Clearwater Paper Corp's operating cash flow is $12.3M, with capital expenditures of $88.8M. FCF margin is -4.9%.

How does CLW compare to other Materials stocks?

Vs Materials sector averages: Net margin -1.2% (avg: 10%), ROE -2.3% (avg: 14%), current ratio 2.43 (avg: 1.6).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 22, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI