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Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

BWIN Nasdaq Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service DE CIK: 0001781755
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 21, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
84% Confidence
AGREEMENT
STRONG SELL
85% Conf
SELL
82% Conf

📊 BWIN Key Takeaways

Revenue: $1.5B
Net Margin: -2.2%
Free Cash Flow: $-68.9M
Current Ratio: 1.16x
Debt/Equity: 2.67x
EPS: $-0.50
AI Rating: STRONG SELL with 85% confidence
Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) receives a SELL rating with 84% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $1.5B, net profit margin of -2.2%, and return on equity (ROE) of -5.6%, Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Finance sector. Below is our complete BWIN stock analysis for 2026.

Is Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) a Good Investment?

Claude

Baldwin Insurance Group faces severe operational distress with negative net income of -$33.8M, negative operating cash flow of -$29.4M, and deteriorating free cash flow of -$68.9M despite modest revenue growth. The company's high leverage (2.67x debt-to-equity) combined with unprofitable operations and negative returns on equity (-5.6%) and assets (-0.9%) indicate fundamental business challenges that threaten long-term viability.

ChatGPT

Baldwin Insurance Group shows weak fundamental quality despite stable revenue, with low operating profitability, negative net income, and negative free cash flow indicating limited earnings conversion. The balance sheet is also stretched, with high leverage and modest liquidity, which raises execution risk if operating performance does not improve. Unless margins and cash generation recover meaningfully, the current fundamentals look unfavorable.

Why Buy Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Stock? BWIN Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Stable revenue base of $1.5B with positive YoY growth of 0.8%
  • + Reasonable current ratio of 1.16x indicating near-term liquidity adequacy
  • + Operating income remains positive at $73.9M with 4.9% operating margin
ChatGPT
  • + Large revenue base with slight year-over-year growth, showing resilient top-line demand
  • + Positive operating income indicates the core business remains profitable before below-the-line costs
  • + Current ratio above 1.0 suggests near-term liquidity is adequate

BWIN Stock Risks: Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Net loss of $33.8M with deteriorating per-share profitability (EPS down 28.2% YoY)
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$68.9M indicating company is burning cash despite revenue generation
  • ! Excessive leverage with $1.6B long-term debt against only $600.2M stockholders' equity and declining cash reserves
  • ! Negative operating cash flow of -$29.4M suggests operational performance cannot support capital expenditures or debt service
  • ! High level of insider activity (33 Form 4 filings in 90 days) may indicate management uncertainty or potential ownership concerns
ChatGPT
  • ! Net losses and a negative 2.2% net margin show weak bottom-line profitability
  • ! Negative operating cash flow and free cash flow indicate poor cash conversion and reliance on external funding
  • ! High debt load, with 2.67x debt-to-equity and $1.60B long-term debt, increases financial risk

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating cash flow trend and return to positive territory
  • * Net income path to profitability and net margin improvement
  • * Free cash flow generation relative to debt service obligations
  • * Debt reduction progress and debt-to-equity ratio improvement
  • * Cash balance depletion rate given negative FCF trajectory
ChatGPT
  • * Operating cash flow and free cash flow trend
  • * Operating margin and net margin improvement

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$1.5B
Net Income
$-33.8M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.50
Free Cash Flow
$-68.9M
Total Assets
$3.9B
Cash Position
$123.7M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

BWIN Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin N/A
Operating Margin 4.9%
Net Margin -2.2%
ROE -5.6%
ROA -0.9%
FCF Margin -4.6%

BWIN vs Finance Sector: How Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Compares

How Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. compares to Finance sector averages

Net Margin
BWIN -2.2%
vs
Sector Avg 25.0%
BWIN Sector
ROE
BWIN -5.6%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
BWIN Sector
Current Ratio
BWIN 1.2x
vs
Sector Avg 1.2x
BWIN Sector
Debt/Equity
BWIN 2.7x
vs
Sector Avg 2.0x
BWIN Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Stock Overvalued? BWIN Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Finance sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
-5.6%
Sector avg: 12%
Net Profit Margin
-2.2%
Sector avg: 25%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
2.67x
Sector avg: 2x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Balance Sheet: BWIN Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.16x
Quick Ratio
1.16x
Debt/Equity
2.67x
Debt/Assets
71.9%
Interest Coverage
N/A
Long-term Debt
$1.6B

BWIN Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

BWIN 5-year financial data: Year 2023: Revenue $1.2B, Net Income -$30.6M, EPS $-0.64. Year 2024: Revenue $1.4B, Net Income -$41.8M, EPS $-0.74. Year 2025: Revenue $1.5B, Net Income -$90.1M, EPS $-1.50.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 23% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-1.50 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

BWIN Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-4.6%
Free cash flow / Revenue

BWIN Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $335.2M -$4.4M $-0.07
Q2 2025 $337.1M -$3.2M $-0.05
Q1 2025 $378.1M $13.9M $0.20
Q3 2024 $304.2M -$4.4M $-0.07
Q2 2024 $295.6M $4.0M $0.06
Q1 2024 $329.5M -$14.1M $-0.24

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$29.4M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$39.5M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

BWIN SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (CIK: 0001781755)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775254654.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775254572.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775254538.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775254457.xml View →
Apr 3, 2026 4 xslF345X06/wk-form4_1775254437.xml View →

Frequently Asked Questions about BWIN

What is the AI rating for BWIN?

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (STRONG SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 84% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are BWIN's key strengths?

Claude: Stable revenue base of $1.5B with positive YoY growth of 0.8%. Reasonable current ratio of 1.16x indicating near-term liquidity adequacy. ChatGPT: Large revenue base with slight year-over-year growth, showing resilient top-line demand. Positive operating income indicates the core business remains profitable before below-the-line costs.

What are the risks of investing in BWIN?

Claude: Net loss of $33.8M with deteriorating per-share profitability (EPS down 28.2% YoY). Negative free cash flow of -$68.9M indicating company is burning cash despite revenue generation. ChatGPT: Net losses and a negative 2.2% net margin show weak bottom-line profitability. Negative operating cash flow and free cash flow indicate poor cash conversion and reliance on external funding.

What is BWIN's revenue and growth?

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.5B.

Does BWIN pay dividends?

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find BWIN SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (CIK: 0001781755) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is BWIN's EPS?

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-0.50.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is BWIN a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. has a SELL rating with 84% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is BWIN stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for BWIN: ROE of -5.6% (sector avg: 12%), net margin of -2.2% (sector avg: 25%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy BWIN stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is BWIN's free cash flow?

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $-29.4M, with capital expenditures of $39.5M. FCF margin is -4.6%.

How does BWIN compare to other Finance stocks?

Vs Finance sector averages: Net margin -2.2% (avg: 25%), ROE -5.6% (avg: 12%), current ratio 1.16 (avg: 1.2).

Is Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. carrying too much debt?

BWIN has a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.67x, which is above the Finance sector average of 2x. However, the current ratio of 1.16 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 21, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI