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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

BAERW Nasdaq Services-Business Services, NEC DE CIK: 0001941536
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 20, 2026 • SEC Data: 2025-12-31
Combined AI Rating
SELL
85% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
SELL
85% Conf
SELL
85% Conf

📊 BAERW Key Takeaways

Revenue: $122.8M
Net Margin: 3.4%
Free Cash Flow: $-64.2M
Current Ratio: 2.43x
Debt/Equity: N/A
EPS: $-0.42
AI Rating: SELL with 85% confidence
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) receives a SELL rating with 85% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $122.8M, net profit margin of 3.4%, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Services sector. Below is our complete BAERW stock analysis for 2026.

Is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) a Good Investment?

Claude

Bridger Aerospace faces severe financial distress with negative stockholders' equity of -$342.6M, indicating the company is technically insolvent and liabilities exceed all assets. Despite revenue growth of 24.6% and positive net income, the company is burning cash with negative free cash flow of -$64.2M and cannot cover interest expenses (0.7x coverage ratio), creating imminent solvency risk.

ChatGPT

Bridger Aerospace is showing real top-line momentum and has improved to modest operating and net profitability, with positive operating cash flow supporting the view that the core business is scaling. However, the quality of that improvement is weakened by very heavy capital spending, deeply negative free cash flow, weak interest coverage, and negative stockholders' equity, which together indicate a fragile financial position despite revenue growth. Until profitability expands meaningfully and cash generation improves after capex, the fundamentals remain high risk.

Why Buy Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Stock? BAERW Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Revenue growth of 24.6% YoY demonstrates market demand for services
  • + Gross margin of 42.1% shows reasonable pricing power and operational efficiency at production level
  • + Positive operating cash flow of $16.7M indicates core business can generate cash from operations
ChatGPT
  • + Revenue grew 24.6% year over year, indicating strong demand and business expansion
  • + Gross margin of 42.1% suggests the underlying service model has solid unit economics
  • + Operating cash flow of $16.73M and improved net income show better underlying earnings conversion than prior year

BAERW Stock Risks: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative stockholders' equity of -$342.6M represents technical insolvency with liabilities exceeding assets by $342.6M
  • ! Negative free cash flow of -$64.2M with high capital expenditure of $80.9M is unsustainable and indicates cash burn despite revenue growth
  • ! Interest coverage ratio of 0.7x means operating income cannot cover debt service obligations, creating default risk on $222.5M long-term debt
ChatGPT
  • ! Negative stockholders' equity and $222.49M of long-term debt signal a stressed balance sheet
  • ! Interest coverage of 0.7x indicates operating earnings are not comfortably covering financing costs
  • ! Free cash flow of negative $64.21M due to very high capital expenditures raises funding and execution risk

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Path to positive free cash flow and capital expenditure reduction timeline
  • * Debt restructuring announcements or refinancing activities
  • * Quarterly trend in net income and operating margin sustainability
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and interest coverage improvement
  • * Free cash flow after capital expenditures

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$122.8M
Net Income
$4.1M
EPS (Diluted)
$-0.42
Free Cash Flow
$-64.2M
Total Assets
$330.3M
Cash Position
$31.4M

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Strong liquidity with a 2.43x current ratio provides a solid financial cushion.

BAERW Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 42.1%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Net Margin 3.4%
ROE N/A
ROA 1.3%
FCF Margin -52.3%

BAERW vs Services Sector: How Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Compares

How Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. compares to Services sector averages

Net Margin
BAERW 3.4%
vs
Sector Avg 10.0%
BAERW Sector
ROE
BAERW 0.0%
vs
Sector Avg 16.0%
BAERW Sector
Current Ratio
BAERW 2.4x
vs
Sector Avg 1.5x
BAERW Sector
Debt/Equity
BAERW 0.0x
vs
Sector Avg 0.7x
BAERW Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Stock Overvalued? BAERW Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. has mixed fundamental signals relative to the Services sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
N/A
Sector avg: 16%
Net Profit Margin
3.4%
Sector avg: 10%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
N/A
Sector avg: 0.7x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Balance Sheet: BAERW Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
2.43x
Quick Ratio
2.43x
Debt/Equity
N/A
Debt/Assets
80.4%
Interest Coverage
0.66x
Long-term Debt
$222.5M

BAERW Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

BAERW 5-year financial data: Year 2023: Revenue $66.7M, Net Income -$42.1M, EPS $-8.20. Year 2024: Revenue $98.6M, Net Income -$77.4M, EPS $-1.00. Year 2025: Revenue $122.8M, Net Income -$15.6M, EPS $-0.81.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s revenue has grown significantly by 84% over the 5-year period, indicating strong business expansion. The most recent EPS of $-0.81 indicates the company is currently unprofitable.

BAERW Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-52.3%
Free cash flow / Revenue

BAERW Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $64.5M $308.0K $-0.02
Q2 2025 $13.0M $308.0K $-0.12
Q1 2025 $5.5M -$15.5M $-0.41
Q3 2024 $53.6M -$2.7M $0.22
Q2 2024 $11.6M -$10.0M $-0.33
Q1 2024 $365.0K -$20.1M $-0.55
Q3 2023 $32.5M -$4.6M $0.15
Q2 2023 $11.6M -$4.6M $0.44

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
$16.7M
Cash generated from operations
Capital Expenditures
$80.9M
Investment in assets
Dividends
None
No dividend program

BAERW SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (CIK: 0001941536)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Mar 26, 2026 8-K bridger_8k.htm View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 11, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 11, 2026 8-K bridger_8k.htm View →
Mar 6, 2026 10-K baer-20251231.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about BAERW

What is the AI rating for BAERW?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAERW) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 85% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are BAERW's key strengths?

Claude: Revenue growth of 24.6% YoY demonstrates market demand for services. Gross margin of 42.1% shows reasonable pricing power and operational efficiency at production level. ChatGPT: Revenue grew 24.6% year over year, indicating strong demand and business expansion. Gross margin of 42.1% suggests the underlying service model has solid unit economics.

What are the risks of investing in BAERW?

Claude: Negative stockholders' equity of -$342.6M represents technical insolvency with liabilities exceeding assets by $342.6M. Negative free cash flow of -$64.2M with high capital expenditure of $80.9M is unsustainable and indicates cash burn despite revenue growth. ChatGPT: Negative stockholders' equity and $222.49M of long-term debt signal a stressed balance sheet. Interest coverage of 0.7x indicates operating earnings are not comfortably covering financing costs.

What is BAERW's revenue and growth?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $122.8M.

Does BAERW pay dividends?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. does not currently pay dividends.

Where can I find BAERW SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (CIK: 0001941536) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is BAERW's EPS?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. has a diluted EPS of $-0.42.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is BAERW a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. has a SELL rating with 85% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is BAERW stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for BAERW: ROE of N/A (sector avg: 16%), net margin of 3.4% (sector avg: 10%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy BAERW stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is BAERW's free cash flow?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s operating cash flow is $16.7M, with capital expenditures of $80.9M. FCF margin is -52.3%.

How does BAERW compare to other Services stocks?

Vs Services sector averages: Net margin 3.4% (avg: 10%), ROE N/A (avg: 16%), current ratio 2.43 (avg: 1.5).

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 20, 2026 | Data as of: 2025-12-31 | Powered by Claude AI