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Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis & AI Rating 2026

AAP NYSE Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores DE CIK: 0001158449
Updated This Month • Analysis: Mar 18, 2026 • SEC Data: 2026-01-03
Combined AI Rating
SELL
84% Confidence
STRONG AGREEMENT
SELL
82% Conf
SELL
85% Conf

📊 AAP Key Takeaways

Revenue: $8.6B
Net Margin: 0.5%
Free Cash Flow: $-298.0M
Current Ratio: 1.75x
Debt/Equity: 1.55x
EPS: $0.73
AI Rating: SELL with 82% confidence
Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) receives a SELL rating with 84% confidence from our AI fundamental analysis based on SEC 10-K filings. With revenue of $8.6B, net profit margin of 0.5%, and return on equity (ROE) of 2.0%, Advance Auto Parts Inc. demonstrates mixed fundamentals in the Automotive sector. Below is our complete AAP stock analysis for 2026.

Is Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) a Good Investment?

Claude

Advance Auto Parts exhibits severe operational distress with negative operating income, deteriorating cash flows, and minimal profitability despite a modest net income turnaround. The company's negative free cash flow of -$298M, coupled with substantial debt burden and negative interest coverage, raises critical concerns about financial sustainability and debt servicing capacity.

ChatGPT

Advance Auto Parts shows weak core fundamentals despite a headline improvement in net income. Revenue is declining, operating income is negative, and both operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, which suggests the earnings rebound is not being supported by healthy underlying business performance. Liquidity is acceptable and cash is substantial, but leverage and negative interest coverage leave limited room for execution missteps if margins do not recover.

Why Buy Advance Auto Parts Inc. Stock? AAP Key Strengths

Claude
  • + Strong gross margin of 43.4% indicates retained pricing power in core business
  • + Adequate cash position of $3.1B provides near-term liquidity buffer
  • + Current ratio of 1.75x suggests reasonable short-term solvency capacity
  • + Net income improvement of +113.1% YoY shows some operational turnaround efforts
ChatGPT
  • + Solid gross margin of 43.4% indicates the business still has pricing power and merchandise margin resilience
  • + Cash balance of $3.12B and current ratio of 1.75x provide near-term liquidity support
  • + Net income and diluted EPS improved materially year over year, showing some stabilization versus the prior period

AAP Stock Risks: Advance Auto Parts Inc. Investment Risks

Claude
  • ! Negative operating income of -$43M and operating margin of -0.5% indicate core business is unprofitable
  • ! Severely negative free cash flow of -$298M threatens dividend sustainability and debt reduction
  • ! Negative interest coverage ratio of -2.3x signals inability to service debt from operations
  • ! Revenue contraction of -5.4% YoY combined with declining same-store trends suggests weakening market position
  • ! High leverage ratio of 1.55x Debt/Equity with $3.4B long-term debt creates refinancing risk
  • ! Operating cash flow negative at -$46M despite positive net income signals earnings quality issues
ChatGPT
  • ! Revenue declined 5.4% year over year, pointing to weak demand or share loss
  • ! Operating margin is negative and interest coverage is -2.3x, signaling poor core earnings capacity relative to debt burden
  • ! Operating cash flow of -$46M and free cash flow of -$298M indicate low earnings quality and strained internal funding

Key Metrics to Watch

Claude
  • * Operating cash flow trends and path to positive OCF generation
  • * Revenue stabilization and same-store sales growth recovery
  • * Operating margin improvement and return to profitability at EBIT level
  • * Free cash flow trajectory and debt reduction progress
  • * Debt-to-EBITDA ratio and covenant compliance status
  • * Capital expenditure efficiency and ROI on store investments
ChatGPT
  • * Operating margin and interest coverage
  • * Operating cash flow and free cash flow

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Financial Metrics & Key Ratios

Revenue
$8.6B
Net Income
$44.0M
EPS (Diluted)
$0.73
Free Cash Flow
$-298.0M
Total Assets
$11.8B
Cash Position
$3.1B

💡 AI Analyst Insight

Advance Auto Parts Inc. presents a mixed fundamental picture. Review the detailed metrics above to form your own investment thesis.

AAP Profit Margin, ROE & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin 43.4%
Operating Margin -0.5%
Net Margin 0.5%
ROE 2.0%
ROA 0.4%
FCF Margin -3.5%

AAP vs Automotive Sector: How Advance Auto Parts Inc. Compares

How Advance Auto Parts Inc. compares to Automotive sector averages

Net Margin
AAP 0.5%
vs
Sector Avg 6.0%
AAP Sector
ROE
AAP 2.0%
vs
Sector Avg 12.0%
AAP Sector
Current Ratio
AAP 1.7x
vs
Sector Avg 1.2x
AAP Sector
Debt/Equity
AAP 1.6x
vs
Sector Avg 1.0x
AAP Sector

Sector benchmarks are approximate industry averages. Actual sector performance may vary.

Is Advance Auto Parts Inc. Stock Overvalued? AAP Valuation Analysis 2026

Based on fundamental analysis, Advance Auto Parts Inc. shows some fundamental concerns relative to the Automotive sector in 2026.

Return on Equity
2.0%
Sector avg: 12%
Net Profit Margin
0.5%
Sector avg: 6%
Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Debt/Equity
1.55x
Sector avg: 1x

Note: This is a fundamental analysis based on SEC filings. For P/E ratio, price targets, and market-based valuation, consult financial data providers. This is not investment advice.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. Balance Sheet: AAP Debt, Cash & Liquidity

Current Ratio
1.75x
Quick Ratio
0.87x
Debt/Equity
1.55x
Debt/Assets
81.4%
Interest Coverage
-2.27x
Long-term Debt
$3.4B

AAP Revenue & Earnings Growth: 5-Year Financial Trend

AAP 5-year financial data: Year 2021: Revenue $11.0B, Net Income $486.9M, EPS $6.84. Year 2022: Revenue $11.2B, Net Income $493.0M, EPS $7.14. Year 2023: Revenue $11.3B, Net Income $596.6M, EPS $9.25. Year 2024: Revenue $9.2B, Net Income $464.4M, EPS $7.65. Year 2026: Revenue $9.2B, Net Income $30.0M, EPS $0.50.
Revenue
Net Income
EPS (right axis)

5-Year Trend Summary: Advance Auto Parts Inc.'s revenue has declined by 16% over the 5-year period, indicating business contraction. The most recent EPS of $0.50 reflects profitable operations.

AAP Revenue Growth, EPS Growth & YoY Performance

Revenue Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
Net Income Growth
N/A
Year-over-year
EPS Growth
N/A
Earnings per share
FCF Margin
-3.5%
Free cash flow / Revenue

AAP Quarterly Earnings & Performance

Quarterly financial performance data for Advance Auto Parts Inc. including revenue, net income, and earnings per share.
Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q3 2025 $2.0B -$1.0M $-0.02
Q2 2025 $2.0B $15.0M $0.25
Q1 2025 $2.6B $24.0M $0.40
Q3 2024 $2.1B -$6.0M $-0.10
Q2 2024 $2.7B $45.0M $0.75
Q1 2024 $3.4B $40.0M $0.67
Q3 2023 $2.6B -$48.6M $-0.82
Q2 2023 $2.7B $85.4M $1.43

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 10-Q quarterly filings. Figures may represent quarterly or cumulative values.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation

Operating Cash Flow
-$46.0M
Cash generated from operations
Stock Buybacks
$4.0M
Shares repurchased (TTM)
Capital Expenditures
$252.0M
Investment in assets
Dividends Paid
$60.0M
Returned to shareholders

AAP SEC Filings: Latest 10-K & 10-Q Analysis

Access official SEC EDGAR filings for Advance Auto Parts Inc. (CIK: 0001158449)

📋 Recent SEC Filings

Date Form Document Action
Apr 1, 2026 DEF 14A aap-20260401.htm View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 17, 2026 4 xslF345X05/ownership.xml View →
Mar 10, 2026 8-K aap-20260309.htm View →

Frequently Asked Questions about AAP

What is the AI rating for AAP?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) has a Combined AI Rating of SELL from Claude (SELL) and ChatGPT (SELL) with 84% combined confidence, based on fundamental analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.

What are AAP's key strengths?

Claude: Strong gross margin of 43.4% indicates retained pricing power in core business. Adequate cash position of $3.1B provides near-term liquidity buffer. ChatGPT: Solid gross margin of 43.4% indicates the business still has pricing power and merchandise margin resilience. Cash balance of $3.12B and current ratio of 1.75x provide near-term liquidity support.

What are the risks of investing in AAP?

Claude: Negative operating income of -$43M and operating margin of -0.5% indicate core business is unprofitable. Severely negative free cash flow of -$298M threatens dividend sustainability and debt reduction. ChatGPT: Revenue declined 5.4% year over year, pointing to weak demand or share loss. Operating margin is negative and interest coverage is -2.3x, signaling poor core earnings capacity relative to debt burden.

What is AAP's revenue and growth?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. reported revenue of $8.6B.

Does AAP pay dividends?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. pays dividends, with $60.0M distributed to shareholders in the trailing twelve months.

Where can I find AAP SEC filings?

Official SEC filings for Advance Auto Parts Inc. (CIK: 0001158449) including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports are available on SEC EDGAR.

What is AAP's EPS?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. has a diluted EPS of $0.73.

How is the AI analysis conducted?

Two independent AI systems — Claude (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) — analyze SEC EDGAR filings including 10-K annual reports and 10-Q quarterly reports. Each AI evaluates financial health, profitability ratios, balance sheet strength, and growth metrics. The combined rating reflects both perspectives for balanced insights.

Is AAP a good stock to buy right now?

Based on our AI fundamental analysis in April 2026, Advance Auto Parts Inc. has a SELL rating with 84% confidence. Review the strengths and risks sections above before making a decision. This is not investment advice.

Is AAP stock overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation metrics for AAP: ROE of 2.0% (sector avg: 12%), net margin of 0.5% (sector avg: 6%). Compare these metrics with sector averages to assess valuation.

Should I buy AAP stock in 2026?

Our dual AI analysis gives Advance Auto Parts Inc. a combined SELL rating for 2026. Revenue is data pending, with profitability at or below sector average. Always conduct your own research.

What is AAP's free cash flow?

Advance Auto Parts Inc.'s operating cash flow is $-46.0M, with capital expenditures of $252.0M. FCF margin is -3.5%.

How does AAP compare to other Automotive stocks?

Vs Automotive sector averages: Net margin 0.5% (avg: 6%), ROE 2.0% (avg: 12%), current ratio 1.75 (avg: 1.2).

Is Advance Auto Parts Inc. carrying too much debt?

AAP has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.55x, which is above the Automotive sector average of 1x. However, the current ratio of 1.75 suggests adequate short-term liquidity.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by Claude AI (Anthropic) and ChatGPT (OpenAI) based on publicly available SEC EDGAR filings. It does not include stock price data and should not be considered financial advice. All fundamental data is sourced from SEC public domain filings. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data Source: SEC EDGAR | Analysis Date: Mar 18, 2026 | Data as of: 2026-01-03 | Powered by Claude AI